Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:53 am

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:39 am I do think there is a chance Michkov is still on the board when the Blues pick. He's clearly the 2nd best prospect in this draft and the best Russian prospect since Ovie and all things equal if you hold the second pick in the draft, you run up there to call his name. BUT, all things aren't equal. It's a daunting ask of a team picking in the top 5-10 to know when he puts your jersey on on draft stage, it's the last time he'll put your jersey on until the 2026-27 season. How many GMs have the job security to sit around and wait THREE full seasons on a guy to arrive? You want your top 5/10 pick to be in your lineup either next season or the following. You may just be drafting him for the next GM at that point.

I'm very conflicted on what I'd want the Blues to do if he's on the board when they pick. I guess it depends on who is left on the board.

As for their later picks, I guess there's a chance Daniil But could fall. 6'5 Russian forward with top 15 pick skill but is signed til April 2025.

The GM job security thing is usually a good point, but I think all of the GMs in the bottom 5 range are all rock solid in that regard. Jarmo is the only one that isn't almost brand new to the job, and he's not going anywhere (and also will likely end up with top pick). The other element of picking a guy that won't come over for a few seasons is that you could argue that actually buys the GM even more time. "How can you fire me before the savior arrives!" He might slip a pick or two, but I'd be shocked if he made it all the way to 8-9.

So if you're the Blues and you're holding the second pick, are you taking him?

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:15 am

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:53 am

The GM job security thing is usually a good point, but I think all of the GMs in the bottom 5 range are all rock solid in that regard. Jarmo is the only one that isn't almost brand new to the job, and he's not going anywhere (and also will likely end up with top pick). The other element of picking a guy that won't come over for a few seasons is that you could argue that actually buys the GM even more time. "How can you fire me before the savior arrives!" He might slip a pick or two, but I'd be shocked if he made it all the way to 8-9.

So if you're the Blues and you're holding the second pick, are you taking him?

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

Not an argument as there was no right or wrong answer, was simply curious your opinion and what you'd want the Blues to do because the only two options where they have to draft him is winning the lottery and getting the second pick or him falling to them in whatever range they end up finishing. A year or two is one thing, not being able to touch him for three full seasons after this one is wild to me. The team I could see having no issue with it is the Coyotes as they already have quite the pipeline built up and need to start staggering these prospects so they don't all come up for renewals the same offseason.

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:15 am

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:53 am

The GM job security thing is usually a good point, but I think all of the GMs in the bottom 5 range are all rock solid in that regard. Jarmo is the only one that isn't almost brand new to the job, and he's not going anywhere (and also will likely end up with top pick). The other element of picking a guy that won't come over for a few seasons is that you could argue that actually buys the GM even more time. "How can you fire me before the savior arrives!" He might slip a pick or two, but I'd be shocked if he made it all the way to 8-9.

So if you're the Blues and you're holding the second pick, are you taking him?

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

There is always a little trepidation on the part of GMs in drafting a Russian so high. Since 2012 (Nail Yakupov) there has been a total of one Russian drafted in the top 5. (Andrei Svechnikov -2018)

Ivan Provorov was also drafted #7 in 2015. After that you are looking at #10 and lower where we start seeing Russians picked. He could definitely slip. To us though, I have no idea.

BluesSK wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:36 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:15 am

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am

So if you're the Blues and you're holding the second pick, are you taking him?

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

There is always a little trepidation on the part of GMs in drafting a Russian so high. Since 2012 (Nail Yakupov) there has been a total of one Russian drafted in the top 5. (Andrei Svechnikov -2018)

Ivan Provorov was also drafted #7 in 2015. After that you are looking at #10 and lower where we start seeing Russians picked. He could definitely slip. To us though, I have no idea.

This Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall in 2016) erasure will not stand!

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:31 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:15 am

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:55 am

So if you're the Blues and you're holding the second pick, are you taking him?

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

Not an argument as there was no right or wrong answer, was simply curious your opinion and what you'd want the Blues to do because the only two options where they have to draft him is winning the lottery and getting the second pick or him falling to them in whatever range they end up finishing. A year or two is one thing, not being able to touch him for three full seasons after this one is wild to me. The team I could see having no issue with it is the Coyotes as they already have quite the pipeline built up and need to start staggering these prospects so they don't all come up for renewals the same offseason.

BPA ALL DAY BABY!!

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:43 am

BluesSK wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:36 am

Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 10:15 am

If the scouts tell me he's the best player, sure. Also that's a totally different argument than the point I was making. Let's make the assumption (likely incorrectly) that all the top pick teams have him rated as the second best player and there being a clear quality drop off after 4. Having one team pass on him at 2 is one thing. Having 3 do it is another. Having those 3, then another 4 pass in favor of inarguably inferior players that will almost assuredly need a year or two to develop anyway is incredibly unlikely if the player rankings are even remotely true.

There is always a little trepidation on the part of GMs in drafting a Russian so high. Since 2012 (Nail Yakupov) there has been a total of one Russian drafted in the top 5. (Andrei Svechnikov -2018)

Ivan Provorov was also drafted #7 in 2015. After that you are looking at #10 and lower where we start seeing Russians picked. He could definitely slip. To us though, I have no idea.

This Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall in 2016) erasure will not stand!

Sorry Mikhail. It's late here.

Here's the write-up for those without access.

2. Matvei Michkov, RW, Sochi (RUSSIA)

Dec. 9, 2004 | 5′ 10.0″ | 172 pounds | Shoots left

January 2023 Ranking: 3

Tier: Projected elite NHL player

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: Elite
Hockey sense: Elite
Compete: NHL average
Shot: High-end

Player comparable: Nikita Kucherov

Background: Michkov posted huge numbers in Russia’s second tier pro league before being loaned to one of the worst teams in the KHL in Sochi. With Sochi he was one of the most productive first-year draft eligible players ever in the KHL. Hs owns the best 17-year-old season in Russia’s junior league history, besting Nikita Kucherov. He is second among their 16-year-old seasons, narrowly trailing Kucherov. He led SKA’s MHL team to a championship in 2022, scoring 13 goals in 17 junior games. He scored three goals in two games at the cancelled 2022 world juniors. At the 2021 Hlinka Gretzky he scored eight goals and 13 points in five games leading Russia to gold. At the 2021 U18 World Championships he was named tournament MVP, scoring 12 goals and 16 points in 7 games.

Analysis: Michkov is one of the very best first-year draft eligibles I’ve ever seen from inside the offensive blue line. He has truly special offensive skill and hockey sense. His mind operates differently from other players in how he sees the play develop and always seems to find ways to figure into scoring chances despite not being the biggest or fastest. His mind is special, but he’s freakishly skilled with the puck too and can make elite stickhandling plays seem routine. He can make plays at a high level, but Michkov is a finisher who will score a lot of goals as a pro. His skating is more elusive than fast and I wouldn’t call him a high-energy type, although he gets to the net to create. He’s signed in the KHL through the 2025-26 season, but when he arrives in the NHL he projects as a game-breaking elite scoring winger in the NHL.

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 11:21 am Here's the write-up for those without access.

2. Matvei Michkov, RW, Sochi (RUSSIA)

Dec. 9, 2004 | 5′ 10.0″ | 172 pounds | Shoots left

January 2023 Ranking: 3

Tier: Projected elite NHL player ...

Analysis: Michkov is one of the very best first-year draft eligibles I’ve ever seen from inside the offensive blue line. He has truly special offensive skill and hockey sense. His mind operates differently from other players in how he sees the play develop and always seems to find ways to figure into scoring chances despite not being the biggest or fastest. His mind is special, but he’s freakishly skilled with the puck too and can make elite stickhandling plays seem routine. He can make plays at a high level, but Michkov is a finisher who will score a lot of goals as a pro. His skating is more elusive than fast and I wouldn’t call him a high-energy type, although he gets to the net to create. He’s signed in the KHL through the 2025-26 season, but when he arrives in the NHL he projects as a game-breaking elite scoring winger in the NHL.

Caveat: Unless/until he accidentally falls to his untimely death from a Moscow high rise window that was supposed to be locked.

I would like to use our bottom two picks plus prospect and future draft picks to move up to get him, while using our original first round pick on Benson.

NHLTIM wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:04 pm I would like to use our bottom two picks plus prospect and future draft picks to move up to get him, while using our original first round pick on Benson.

Is anyone who is likely to get one of the first couple of picks likely to trade down, even for a package like that?

RAFritchey wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:52 pm

NHLTIM wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:04 pm I would like to use our bottom two picks plus prospect and future draft picks to move up to get him, while using our original first round pick on Benson.

Is anyone who is likely to get one of the first couple of picks likely to trade down, even for a package like that?

When it comes to Michkov, it’s just going to depend. Some teams might not be willing to wait 3-4 years or so for him. There is a possibility he slides because of his commitment to the KHL. If you don’t get Bedard but you can draft Carlsson or Fantilli and likely see them in a year, if not in a few months, that helps the slide of Michkov, and that’s when teams who are willing to wait will start offering packages to move up.

NHLTIM wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:47 am

RAFritchey wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 8:52 pm

NHLTIM wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:04 pm I would like to use our bottom two picks plus prospect and future draft picks to move up to get him, while using our original first round pick on Benson.

Is anyone who is likely to get one of the first couple of picks likely to trade down, even for a package like that?

When it comes to Michkov, it’s just going to depend. Some teams might not be willing to wait 3-4 years or so for him. There is a possibility he slides because of his commitment to the KHL. If you don’t get Bedard but you can draft Carlsson or Fantilli and likely see them in a year, if not in a few months, that helps the slide of Michkov, and that’s when teams who are willing to wait will start offering packages to move up.

I'm in line with your thinking. I'd be shocked if Fantilli doesn't go 2nd and then Carlsson third. They are both AT MOST another season away from making an impact. After that, it seems to be a guess of 10 or so guys for the following picks.

Blues are set up nicely, they really just gotta get this right.

I just want to say, there's no D prospect standing out to date who warrants our top ten pick on skill alone. I can't see a world where the pick isn't used on a skilled forward wether it's *-5 or 6-10.

Connor Bedard just notched his 70th goal in 55 games this season.

That’s very nice, but i could do without that celly.

T.C. wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:54 am That’s very nice, but i could do without that celly.

No worries. If he gets too out of hand the NHL will just make him take diversity training or something to break him.

It would be nice if after a goal he pulled out the bible and read a favorite passage of his!

ROFL at the above comments. chef's kiss.

BluesSK wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:54 am Connor Bedard just notched his 70th goal in 55 games this season.

Who needs the first pick in the draft? Blues will draft a player that ends up better than Bedard. I'm calling it

The good thing about where the Blues have positioned themselves is IF there is a player they fall in love with that isn't Fantilli or Bedard they have the trading pieces to move up and get their guy which is why I'm not overly concerned by these points they are getting. It'd be nice to not have to trade up but they won't miss their guy if they don't want to.

Who needs Bedard anyway we have Dean!

Let the conspiracies begin, who does the league rig the draft for to get Bedard? My guess is either the Redwings or Montreal.

Chicago or Anaheim. Hopefully they mess up and somehow the Blues ping pong ball pops up instead and foils their plans

If we get the 2nd pick I'd be ecstatic.

Give him to montreal so the two best players can be on canadian teams while a russian breaks the most goals record