GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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Berube has not said yet who will be in goal for the Blues. Both goalies have gaa's over 3 the last two months. Need one of them to get hot to have a shot. I'd try Binner first just because been there done that.

Both Schenn and Scandella are expected back for game 1.



Under the NHL’s current playoff format, there have been many instances of unfair first-round matchups that feature two top teams that don’t deserve an early exit. This series between the sixth-ranked Wild and eighth-ranked Blues certainly qualifies.

It’s unjust for either side, but it should make for an incredibly entertaining series for the fans — one that’s sure to be fiercely fought and tightly contested.

The Wild enter the series as heavy favorites, according to the model, expected to win the series 75 percent of the time. That’s a bold take for a team that’s 2-5-4 against the Blues over the past two seasons, and it’s worth noting that the model does not consider head-to-head matchups when estimating series probability. In most cases, it’s just noise. In this case? There may be something to the Blues having the Wild’s number.

The other caveat to the odds is the difficulty that comes with modeling both of these teams, specifically using public expected goals.

For the Wild, it’s a matter of rink bias making them look worse offensively and better defensively than they actually are. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team, just maybe not at this level. For the Blues, it’s their passing ability that creates better offensive chances than is shown in public expected goals. According to SportLogiq, their expected goals percentage at five-on-five is two percentage points higher than the public models suggest (48.6 percent, per Evolving-Hockey).

https://theathletic.com/3288341/2022/05 ... ds-monday/
Last edited by T.C. on Mon May 02, 2022 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: stickified
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Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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This matchup rules. The entire first round is full of banger matchups, but It seems like this is the matchup a lot of the national media is really looking forward to. That's not something anyone said about prior Blues-Wild playoff matchups. Minnesota isn't exactly a one line team, but if you slow down Kaprizov (much easier said than done), you have to like the Blues chances. Very curious to see how the Blues go about matching up with him. Besides blatant homerism, the reason I like the Blues in this series is behind the bench. Not only has Berube and co. been here before, but I really thing Jim Montgomery makes a huge difference in a series like this. Remember how damn hard it was to score on Dallas in the 2019 series? Yes Bishop was great, but the Blues were a hitting on all cylinders at that point and nobody made them look worse in that playoff run than Montgomery's Stars. I think he's the secret weapon in finding a way to keep Kaprizov at bay.
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!

Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:04 am Cam Talbot hasn't had a loss in 18 starts. MAF has given up 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Wild opting for playoff experience.


I think they HAD to start Fleury. Even if Talbot had been better down the stretch there are bigger picture items at play. I can't imagine MAF would've waived his NTC to come to Minnesota if they hadn't given him some assurance he'd get the Game 1 start. If they start Talbot without Fleury having been absolute garbage in the run-up to the series I'd be worried it'd turn a few agents sour on the organization. Not something you want to have hanging over your head when you're going to have to have a few busy offseasons due to the impending salary cap hell the Wild are about to enter.
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!

Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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Dave's a mess wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:16 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:04 am Cam Talbot hasn't had a loss in 18 starts. MAF has given up 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Wild opting for playoff experience.


I think they HAD to start Fleury. Even if Talbot had been better down the stretch there are bigger picture items at play. I can't imagine MAF would've waived his NTC to come to Minnesota if they hadn't given him some assurance he'd get the Game 1 start. If they start Talbot without Fleury having been absolute garbage in the run-up to the series I'd be worried it'd turn a few agents sour on the organization. Not something you want to have hanging over your head when you're going to have to have a few busy offseasons due to the impending salary cap hell the Wild are about to enter.

So it's better to be viewed as an organization that decides their lineups because of agents? A bit confused on this one.

I can understand if they did him dirty like Vegas did where they traded him to Chicago without telling him, but it seems most Wild fans expected/want Talbot in goal.

I honestly think it just came down to experiences as the reason.
Just a Russian propaganda account

Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:26 am
Dave's a mess wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:16 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:04 am Cam Talbot hasn't had a loss in 18 starts. MAF has given up 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Wild opting for playoff experience.


I think they HAD to start Fleury. Even if Talbot had been better down the stretch there are bigger picture items at play. I can't imagine MAF would've waived his NTC to come to Minnesota if they hadn't given him some assurance he'd get the Game 1 start. If they start Talbot without Fleury having been absolute garbage in the run-up to the series I'd be worried it'd turn a few agents sour on the organization. Not something you want to have hanging over your head when you're going to have to have a few busy offseasons due to the impending salary cap hell the Wild are about to enter.

So it's better to be viewed as an organization that decides their lineups because of agents? A bit confused on this one.

I can understand if they did him dirty like Vegas did where they traded him to Chicago without telling him, but it seems most Wild fans expected/want Talbot in goal.

I honestly think it just came down to experiences as the reason.
Not exactly, just that you don't want the perception that you're screwing over veterans, particularly future HOFers. And you're right, its entirely reasonable that this is an experienced based decision. There's no reason to make this trade if you're not planning on using him in the playoffs, and that ties into my point. If you buy the theory that Fleury would've been ok with no trade at all, you'd think that he'd only want to go to a team that would start him in the playoffs. I think starting him in Game 1 is a no brainer for both reasons.
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!

Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

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Dave's a mess wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:37 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:26 am
Dave's a mess wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:16 am

I think they HAD to start Fleury. Even if Talbot had been better down the stretch there are bigger picture items at play. I can't imagine MAF would've waived his NTC to come to Minnesota if they hadn't given him some assurance he'd get the Game 1 start. If they start Talbot without Fleury having been absolute garbage in the run-up to the series I'd be worried it'd turn a few agents sour on the organization. Not something you want to have hanging over your head when you're going to have to have a few busy offseasons due to the impending salary cap hell the Wild are about to enter.

So it's better to be viewed as an organization that decides their lineups because of agents? A bit confused on this one.

I can understand if they did him dirty like Vegas did where they traded him to Chicago without telling him, but it seems most Wild fans expected/want Talbot in goal.

I honestly think it just came down to experiences as the reason.
Not exactly, just that you don't want the perception that you're screwing over veterans, particularly future HOFers. And you're right, its entirely reasonable that this is an experienced based decision. There's no reason to make this trade if you're not planning on using him in the playoffs, and that ties into my point. If you buy the theory that Fleury would've been ok with no trade at all, you'd think that he'd only want to go to a team that would start him in the playoffs. I think starting him in Game 1 is a no brainer for both reasons.
I hope to see both of their goalies tonight
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Re: GDT: GM 1 St Louis Blues @ Minnesota Wild - 5/2 8:30 - TV:ESPN

25
BluesSK wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 2:38 pm The betting take in the series. St. Louis in a squeaker according to them.

I don't think it's gonna be that close.
It's interesting how all the #fancystat models love the Wild and hate the Blues. Dom at The Athletic even acknowledged that his model makes this series look way more tilted towards Minnesota than he really thinks it'll be. I generally like all the analytics, but am excited for them to be exposed as huge frauds this year :D
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!