Blues News Forum

UMSLBlues12 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:23 pm To briefly get back on my epidemiology 101 I’ve been doing here—this is what happens if we don’t do prevention activities. Cases start doubling in decreasing periods of time until shit is out of control. 50% of the cases in the ICU being people under 60 is not great either. Please take this seriously.

BillP. wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:16 pm In regards to seasonal flu, so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

barnburner wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:40 pmAmong the reader comments on an article outlining the number of cases of the virus,, was this obvious Rhodes Scholar who doubted the accuracy of the report based on the fact that he didn't know a single person who had come down with it.

BillP. wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:16 pm In regards to seasonal flu, so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

bradleygt89 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:53 pm

BillP. wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:16 pm In regards to seasonal flu, so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

And? Let's do the math Billy P: 22,000 deaths of 36,000,000 cases is less than a 0.07% mortality rate. Average mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% so this is actually a 'good year'.

Current total for Covid-19: 5833 deaths of 156,241 cases is more than a 3.5% mortality rate. Now imagine if just 1,000,000...that's one million folks worldwide get infected and have Covid-19: that would be over 15,000 deaths even if the mortality rate dropped to 'only' 1.5% or half of what it is now based on current reported numbers. 10,000,000 million cases? 150,000 deaths at 1.5%. So do you really want to let this just 'play out' like the flu?

Get the difference?

Still not getting it?: Check out these two screenshots I took from the John Hopkins University data map of global cases...especially notice the bottom right graph and the sharp increase in just SIX DAYS in cases outside of China and how many more countries are affected. IF you think the world is overreacting, hey go take a trip to Seattle Washington, Italy, France, Spain and talk to the doctors and medical professionals there or the loved ones of those who are sick or who have died. I am sure they would love to hear your expert advice about how this whole thing is just an overreaction and no worse than the flu...

FireShot Capture 304 - Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com World 3-14-2020.png

Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com 3-8-2020.png

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

UMSLBlues12 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:55 pm

bradleygt89 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:53 pm

BillP. wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:16 pm In regards to seasonal flu, so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

And? Let's do the math Billy P: 22,000 deaths of 36,000,000 cases is less than a 0.07% mortality rate. Average mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% so this is actually a 'good year'.

Current total for Covid-19: 5833 deaths of 156,241 cases is more than a 3.5% mortality rate. Now imagine if just 1,000,000...that's one million folks worldwide get infected and have Covid-19: that would be over 15,000 deaths even if the mortality rate dropped to 'only' 1.5% or half of what it is now based on current reported numbers. 10,000,000 million cases? 150,000 deaths at 1.5%. So do you really want to let this just 'play out' like the flu?

Get the difference?

Still not getting it?: Check out these two screenshots I took from the John Hopkins University data map of global cases...especially notice the bottom right graph and the sharp increase in just SIX DAYS in cases outside of China and how many more countries are affected. IF you think the world is overreacting, hey go take a trip to Seattle Washington, Italy, France, Spain and talk to the doctors and medical professionals there or the loved ones of those who are sick or who have died. I am sure they would love to hear your expert advice about how this whole thing is just an overreaction and no worse than the flu...

FireShot Capture 304 - Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com World 3-14-2020.png

Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com 3-8-2020.png

Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

I think I pretty well laid out how this is different from the flu in my earlier post in this thread. If someone can read that (and I'm not just some asshole here--I'm literally a dude with a master's degree in Epidemiology whose worked in the field for years!) and still think we should be comparing this to the flu then there's just no point.

CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:06 amThis thread is giving my throat a tickle.

ratonmono wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:43 pmYeah you can close the books on the season and any concerts for the foreseeable future.

JMC-STL wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:49 am

CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:06 amThis thread is giving my throat a tickle.

Not unlike some of your other daily activities.

ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.

ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 amAnother issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.

JMC-STL wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:52 am

ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 amAnother issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.

@rat: Sympathy will make you feel better for a short time, but hope will carry you much further. So what I wish - and pray - for you and your "brothers and sisters in recovery" is hope. We all need it.

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:44 am

JMC-STL wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:49 am

CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:06 amThis thread is giving my throat a tickle.

Not unlike some of your other daily activities.

You two crack me up

ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:37 pm

BillP. wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:16 pm In regards to seasonal flu, so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

Damn, imagine if countries did nothing and left it up to the people to stop the spread of coronavirus like they do the Flu. We'd need mass graveyards.