Here's the Blues Cap page

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/blues

Here's Colton's stat page

https://www.nhl.com/player/colton-parayko-8476892

153 13 53 66 32

66/153 is .43 ppg, he's 23 years old, the Blues traded Shatty based on his potential. He's an RFA, what contract would you like to see him get this summer? As things stand right now, the Blues have just more than 6 MM in cap space for next year.

Buy all of his RFA years? 4 years / 4.5 MM

The only reason to sign him early is to buy out a UFA year or two.

39hurricane wrote:Here's the Blues Cap page

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/blues

Here's Colton's stat page

https://www.nhl.com/player/colton-parayko-8476892

153 13 53 66 32

66/153 is .43 ppg, he's 23 years old, the Blues traded Shatty based on his potential. He's an RFA, what contract would you like to see him get this summer? As things stand right now, the Blues have just more than 6 MM in cap space for next year.

Buy all of his RFA years? 4 years / 4.5 MM

He's already surpassed Shatty. Not a knock on Shatty.

Probably get a bridge deal, but I would sign him longer personally. What's the max? 8 years?

Armstrong was a big bridge deal guy a few years back, giving them to Berglund, Perron and Oshie, but has been willing to go long term after the entry level deal for the right player (Tarasenko and Pietrangelo). I'd say he fits somewhere in between those two groups, but doesn't seem to have the maturity issues associated with those particularly bridge deal guys. I'm hoping for a long term deal, but am not sure what the cap hit should be at this point.

hes 23 years old and has 2 years of service. I think that means he has 3 more years of RFA status. Meaning he turns 27 and goes UFA in 4 years. Don't want to let him get to UFA on the slim chance he really wants to play on some team like Calgary.

3 years / 3, 4, 5

More than comfortable locking him up long term. An interesting case to predict the value tho.

I'd offer along the lines of what Klingberg got in Dallas but a little more rich.
I'd offer 7yrs/ $32m-$33m.
I'm not comfortable pussy footing around with bridge deals for someone of his skill set and potential.
I know he has to agree to it also but I'm shooting for the moon here.

Lock him up long term, future Norris trophy winner.

I'd prefer a more Schwartz-like approach with Parayko. Short bridge deal now (2-3 years) and then lock him up long-term after that so we buy out more free agency years. This could backfire a la Subban, but I'd take the risk.

Players like Parayko don't come along very often. Lock him up long term.

barnburner wrote:Players like Parayko don't come along very often. Lock him up long term.

Totally agree.

Tough call but I think I would lean towards a bridge deal for one or two seasons then go long term.

I just want to see how a agreeable he is in negotiations and how he feels about staying on the Blues long term.

The dude is going to get paid there's no question about that. That's not even the issue.

I hope they do a long term deal, get him locked up for a good price ($5 mil?).

blue to the bone wrote:I'd offer along the lines of what Klingberg got in Dallas but a little more rich.
I'd offer 7yrs/ $32m-$33m.
I'm not comfortable pussy footing around with bridge deals for someone of his skill set and potential.
I know he has to agree to it also but I'm shooting for the moon here.

You will pay more later anyway, and he doesn't appear to be regressing at all.

He will be 24 in May, so he only has 3 more RFA years left based on age. I think the only thing less likely than a 4 years extension is a 3 year extension. He will either get 2 years at $3M or so per year on a bridge deal, or a 6-8 year deal anywhere from $5.5M on the low end of UFA years or $6.25M on the high end. My guess is that the team is looking for something in the 6/$33M or 7/$40M range. I would favor the 6 year deal as it will push him to 30 when he signs his next deal and, if healthy, should still have 6 good years left, give or take.

Did Colton do the Blues a favor by taking arbitration? The Blues can now choose 2 years on a favorable deal, and then still have Colton in the RFA status at the end.

We've got about 7.6 M in cap space right now.

39hurricane wrote:Did Colton do the Blues a favor by taking arbitration? The Blues can now choose 2 years on a favorable deal, and then still have Colton in the RFA status at the end.

We've got about 7.6 M in cap space right now.

I don't know if it really 'helps' the Blues are not. Either with a 2 year deal or a 5+ year deal, Colton's going to get paid over $6M...and while giving him Petro money now may seem messed up, his value is only going to get higher, meaning that if we do two years now at even best case of $5.5, in two years if he continues to progress, he'll be in the $8M per range (just looking at how salaries seem to increase at least $1M per season on average).

So 2 years of 5.5 = $11 plus new deal later on of say 5 years at $8M = $40 for $51M for 7 years, or $7.3M per year

Or go 7 years now at $6.5 with a NTC/NMC that kicks in after 3 years. That way if he blows and some team like 'yotes or VGK are needing cap help, we can deal within those 3 years.

bradleygt89 wrote:

39hurricane wrote:Did Colton do the Blues a favor by taking arbitration? The Blues can now choose 2 years on a favorable deal, and then still have Colton in the RFA status at the end.

We've got about 7.6 M in cap space right now.

I don't know if it really 'helps' the Blues are not. Either with a 2 year deal or a 5+ year deal, Colton's going to get paid over $6M...and while giving him Petro money now may seem messed up, his value is only going to get higher, meaning that if we do two years now at even best case of $5.5, in two years if he continues to progress, he'll be in the $8M per range (just looking at how salaries seem to increase at least $1M per season on average).

So 2 years of 5.5 = $11 plus new deal later on of say 5 years at $8M = $40 for $51M for 7 years, or $7.3M per year

Or go 7 years now at $6.5 with a NTC/NMC that kicks in after 3 years. That way if he blows and some team like 'yotes or VGK are needing cap help, we can deal within those 3 years.

There is no way he gets that kind of money on a two year arb award. My guess is that his number comes in around $3M on a one year deal or $3.5M-$4M on a two year deal. Those are both RFA years. The only way his figure eclipses the $5M range is if you have two or more UFA years covered under the deal, which would mean at least a five year deal.

I think Colton will sign a long term deal before arbitration comes. I also think it will be an 8 year deal, probably 5.5 to 6.25 million AAV. Parayko already is the #2 defenseman on this team. He's going to be the #1 before too long. Pietrangelo is great, but I think Parayko is going to surpass him in overall status. Pietrangelo may always be better defensively.

What I'm saying is if Colton had not filed, and the Blues filed, Colton would then have the option to choose 1 or 2 years.

The award is going to be reasonable, let's say 4.5, and the Blues are going to take 2 years. And 55 will STILL be an RFA

39hurricane wrote:What I'm saying is if Colton had not filed, and the Blues filed, Colton would then have the option to choose 1 or 2 years.

The award is going to be reasonable, let's say 4.5, and the Blues are going to take 2 years. And 55 will STILL be an RFA

Not being argumentative, but curious what your basing that 4.5/ on? I've personally always felt more 5.5-6.25, especially after some of the RFA contracts by his peers this summer and last.

bradleygt89 wrote:

39hurricane wrote:What I'm saying is if Colton had not filed, and the Blues filed, Colton would then have the option to choose 1 or 2 years.

The award is going to be reasonable, let's say 4.5, and the Blues are going to take 2 years. And 55 will STILL be an RFA

Not being argumentative, but curious what your basing that 4.5/ on? I've personally always felt more 5.5-6.25, especially after some of the RFA contracts by his peers this summer and last.

lets just take the two closest guys in points:

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/andrej-sekera 5.5M

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/matt-dumba 2.55M

39hurricane wrote:

bradleygt89 wrote:

39hurricane wrote:What I'm saying is if Colton had not filed, and the Blues filed, Colton would then have the option to choose 1 or 2 years.

The award is going to be reasonable, let's say 4.5, and the Blues are going to take 2 years. And 55 will STILL be an RFA

Not being argumentative, but curious what your basing that 4.5/ on? I've personally always felt more 5.5-6.25, especially after some of the RFA contracts by his peers this summer and last.

lets just take the two closest guys in points:

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/andrej-sekera 5.5M

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/matt-dumba 2.55M

??

How does a 30+ year old player who is established and a player on the last year of a bridge contract have any relevance to Parayko's next contract 39H? You know that's not how this works...right?

Look at the D who are in the same age range and signing period as Parayko, with any kind of similar stats, like these:

This year so far:

Justin Schultz: 27 y/o career high 51 points 16/17, 3 years, 5.5M
Orlov: 25 y/o, career high 33 points 16/17, 6 years, 5.1M

Last year:

Connor Murphy, never broke 20 points, 6 years, 3.85M
Danny Dekeheiser, best year was 14/15 w/ 31 points, 6 years, 5M

just a few examples of comparable, and of them only Schultz has the proven production that Parayko does, and Colton is 3 years younger with a higher ceiling than Schultz...no way Parayko receives less than 5.5 for 2 years in Arbitration.

Blues will be smart to lock him up long term for anything with a $6. in front of it.

bradleygt89 wrote:
Blues will be smart to lock him up long term for anything with a $6. in front of it.

Agreed. That would be a "Blue Light Special" bargain.

I think his deal ends up looking a lot like Pietrangelo's contract when all is said and done. Parayko has accomplished a little less than Petro had at that point, but the cap has gone up a bit since then.