Re: League Watch 2020

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MissouriMook wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am Well said, Brad. My motto in life that applies to most everything is that I'd rather have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. That can be applied to preparedness for anything, even a viral pandemic. Be safe everyone.
Yeah, but you are a total dipshit, so this only strengthens my argument.

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:29 am Cant you all just find common ground and realize you’re both right about things on this?
I don't have a problem with caution, All I am saying is that the prediction of millions dead is way...way...way off. Shutting down the stadium events and large gatherings of thousands of people...sure that seems to be heavy handed, but I'll give it to you. Forcing restaurants to close is bullshit...a lot of those people will never recover and all for fear.

If there are 100k infected...there are going to be 3-4k fatalities considering the global morbidity rate. I have read estimates of 500k-214 million being thrown around.

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NHLTIM wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:41 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:29 am Cant you all just find common ground and realize you’re both right about things on this?
Common ground is sooo boring
Common ground? How about common sense. I didn't even start asking questions until I saw some guy quoting a Harvard virologist who said there could be 3-4 billion people infected. Come on...if there is that many people infected there will be 100's of millions dead.

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No one knows the number of cases because not everyone is getting tested and not everyone has symptoms. We also don't know the death rate for this exact reason, especially because children can carry the virus but rarely show signs but are never factored into the stats. Do I believe the mortality rate is 3-4%? Absolutely not. Do I think it's still well above the flu? Absolutely. Do I enjoy asking myself rhetorical questions to drive home a point? sometimes.

I also think it's silly to think the Virus was first in China in November and I'm to believe it didn't arrive in the U.S until March? In what freaking world does that happen? I'd say it's been here for months and that flu I had in December could have just as easily been coronavirus. WE DON'T KNOW.

However, I also think it's a good idea to be proactive about these things instead of reactive because loss of life isn't just collateral damage. All we can do at this point is to do our part and be responsible.

If it blows by, you'll have half the country saying "see I told you it was media driven!" while the other half is screaming, "see I told you the steps we took would work and save lives!"

Support your friends, support your community, make a baby.
Just a Russian propaganda account

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Look at how this is being inflated.....lose millions of lives...there are 8272 fatalities from this so far. Doesn't anyone find it kind of outrageous that people are claiming millions could die? More people die from falling down the stairs!
Attachments

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CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 am
NHLTIM wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:41 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:29 am Cant you all just find common ground and realize you’re both right about things on this?
Common ground is sooo boring
Common ground? How about common sense. I didn't even start asking questions until I saw some guy quoting a Harvard virologist who said there could be 3-4 billion people infected. Come on...if there is that many people infected there will be 100's of millions dead.
There are over 7 billion people in the world. None of us have immunity to this.

I don't know who said that statistic, but yes, if there is not a vaccine developed soon enough, its going to keep spreading and infect roughly 40-70% of the people in the world before any herd immunity starts to build up. This isn't anything fancy; this is basic epidemiology. When there is a disease and no one is immune, it will spread until immunity is introduced into the population one way (vaccine) or another (people get infected and recover). This is how pandemics work.

The entire goal of all of this is to spread out the number of infections over a longer period of time so our hospitals don't get completely fucked (like is happening in Italy).

A lot of you need to realize that you simply have no idea what you're talking about with this. None of the science classes you took in high school or undergrad teach you about disease transmission and epidemiology. Your "common sense" sounds, quite honestly, dumb to anyone who has any basic training in the actual science that studies these things. Just because numbers sound big and unimaginable to you doesn't mean they aren't possible. There's a reason why we're doing such drastic prevention right now--we don't want the numbers to get that high! And if we keep the numbers spread out wide enough, hopefully the mortality rate for the disease decreases--because hospitals are still running at capacity.
Last edited by UMSLBlues12 on Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 am No one knows the number of cases because not everyone is getting tested and not everyone has symptoms. We also don't know the death rate for this exact reason, especially because children can carry the virus but rarely show signs but are never factored into the stats. Do I believe the mortality rate is 3-4%? Absolutely not. Do I think it's still well above the flu? Absolutely. Do I enjoy asking myself rhetorical questions to drive home a point? sometimes.

I also think it's silly to think the Virus was first in China in November and I'm to believe it didn't arrive in the U.S until March? In what freaking world does that happen? I'd say it's been here for months and that flu I had in December could have just as easily been coronavirus. WE DON'T KNOW.

However, I also think it's a good idea to be proactive about these things instead of reactive because loss of life isn't just collateral damage. All we can do at this point is to do our part and be responsible.

If it blows by, you'll have half the country saying "see I told you it was media driven!" while the other half is screaming, "see I told you the steps we took would work and save lives!"

Support your friends, support your community, make a baby.

Just for clarity, the first 'confirmed' case of Coronavirus in the USA was in mid-January, after it was initially announced as 'discovered' on Dec 31, 2019 in Wuhan China: Scroll to the bottom of the following page: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... k-evolved/

or here is another timeline: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 54884.html
"Do Only Good Everyday"

Re: League Watch 2020

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bradleygt89 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:00 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 am No one knows the number of cases because not everyone is getting tested and not everyone has symptoms. We also don't know the death rate for this exact reason, especially because children can carry the virus but rarely show signs but are never factored into the stats. Do I believe the mortality rate is 3-4%? Absolutely not. Do I think it's still well above the flu? Absolutely. Do I enjoy asking myself rhetorical questions to drive home a point? sometimes.

I also think it's silly to think the Virus was first in China in November and I'm to believe it didn't arrive in the U.S until March? In what freaking world does that happen? I'd say it's been here for months and that flu I had in December could have just as easily been coronavirus. WE DON'T KNOW.

However, I also think it's a good idea to be proactive about these things instead of reactive because loss of life isn't just collateral damage. All we can do at this point is to do our part and be responsible.

If it blows by, you'll have half the country saying "see I told you it was media driven!" while the other half is screaming, "see I told you the steps we took would work and save lives!"

Support your friends, support your community, make a baby.

Just for clarity, the first 'confirmed' case of Coronavirus in the USA was in mid-January, after it was initially announced as 'discovered' on Dec 31, 2019 in Wuhan China: Scroll to the bottom of the following page: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... k-evolved/

or here is another timeline: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 54884.html
That's not clarity because the first known case was tracked back to November and even that's best case considering how the Chinese government suppressed news on it. Patient 0 has not been tracked.
Just a Russian propaganda account

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 am

I also think it's silly to think the Virus was first in China in November and I'm to believe it didn't arrive in the U.S until March? In what freaking world does that happen? I'd say it's been here for months and that flu I had in December could have just as easily been coronavirus. WE DON'T KNOW.
Good point. I had what I assumed to be the flu while in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado in June of last year. High fever, severe shortness of breath, etc. Fever broke after a few days, but the shortness of breath hung on. Finally had to go to the doctor a couple of months later when it kept getting worse. Turned out that whatever I had, gave me pneumonia.
It all matches what they are describing as takes place with this virus. For all I know, I've already had it. What we don't know, is a hell of a lot more than we do know.
Last edited by barnburner on Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Isn't anyone talking about the NHLPA proposal to the league about the rest of the season. I only heard it once last night. Something about starting the league back up in July and finishing a shortened season and then ending the playoffs in September and then taking about 4 weeks off and then start up the new season?

Personally, I don't know if I like that. Is a 4 week layoff enough? Sure doesn't give the Championship team any time to celebrate its Cup. I think you start the new season up in November and go with a shortened season next year. Might be more fun for us as fans with a condensed schedule. More games more often.

Re: League Watch 2020

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CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am Look at how this is being inflated.....lose millions of lives...there are 8272 fatalities from this so far. Doesn't anyone find it kind of outrageous that people are claiming millions could die? More people die from falling down the stairs!
IF we do NOT take action, millions of lives could be lost. Not being a smart ass since we aren't having a fluid conversation here, but do you get the difference?

It's like this: Alarmist: "Hey, if we let everyone continue to drive drunk, there will be millions and millions of deaths on the highways related to drunk driving"

Government and social response: "Let's increase awareness of drunk driving, impose stiff penalties if you do drive drunk, etc. so we have LESS drunk driving related deaths."

Most people; OK, sounds good, let's be responsible and not drive drunk or with someone drunk

Some idiots: FUCK THAT! I actually drive better after drinking (yes, I have actually heard folks say this...remember where I grew up in rural Missouri...)

Again, IMHO, it is better to be proactive than reactive. And hopefully our country will realize this soon so as UMSL said, we don't wind up being in a similar situation as Italy.
"Do Only Good Everyday"

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UMSLBlues12 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 am
NHLTIM wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:41 am

Common ground is sooo boring
Common ground? How about common sense. I didn't even start asking questions until I saw some guy quoting a Harvard virologist who said there could be 3-4 billion people infected. Come on...if there is that many people infected there will be 100's of millions dead.
There are over 7 billion people in the world. None of us have immunity to this.

I don't know who said that statistic, but yes, if there is not a vaccine developed soon enough, its going to keep spreading and infect roughly 40-70% of the people in the world before any herd immunity starts to build up. This isn't anything fancy; this is basic epidemiology. When there is a disease and no one is immune, it will spread until immunity is introduced into the population one way (vaccine) or another (people get infected and recover). This is how pandemics work.

The entire goal of all of this is to spread out the number of infections over a longer period of time so our hospitals don't get completely fucked (like is happening in Italy).

A lot of you need to realize that you simply have no idea what you're talking about with this. None of the science classes you took in high school or undergrad teach you about disease transmission and epidemiology. Your "common sense" sounds, quite honestly, dumb to anyone who has any basic training in the actual science that studies these things. Just because numbers sound big and unimaginable to you doesn't mean they aren't possible. There's a reason why we're doing such drastic prevention right now--we don't want the numbers to get that high! And if we keep the numbers spread out wide enough, hopefully the mortality rate for the disease decreases--because hospitals are still running at capacity.
If 500k get this virus then a fixed percentage within a reasonable margin of error will die...how do you need an advanced degree to know that?

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BillP. wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:07 am Isn't anyone talking about the NHLPA proposal to the league about the rest of the season. I only heard it once last night. Something about starting the league back up in July and finishing a shortened season and then ending the playoffs in September and then taking about 4 weeks off and then start up the new season?

Personally, I don't know if I like that. Is a 4 week layoff enough? Sure doesn't give the Championship team any time to celebrate its Cup. I think you start the new season up in November and go with a shortened season next year. Might be more fun for us as fans with a condensed schedule. More games more often.
Jmo, but I think they should just scratch this season and hope we can responsibly start the next season on time.

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CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:11 am
UMSLBlues12 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:59 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 am

Common ground? How about common sense. I didn't even start asking questions until I saw some guy quoting a Harvard virologist who said there could be 3-4 billion people infected. Come on...if there is that many people infected there will be 100's of millions dead.
There are over 7 billion people in the world. None of us have immunity to this.

I don't know who said that statistic, but yes, if there is not a vaccine developed soon enough, its going to keep spreading and infect roughly 40-70% of the people in the world before any herd immunity starts to build up. This isn't anything fancy; this is basic epidemiology. When there is a disease and no one is immune, it will spread until immunity is introduced into the population one way (vaccine) or another (people get infected and recover). This is how pandemics work.

The entire goal of all of this is to spread out the number of infections over a longer period of time so our hospitals don't get completely fucked (like is happening in Italy).

A lot of you need to realize that you simply have no idea what you're talking about with this. None of the science classes you took in high school or undergrad teach you about disease transmission and epidemiology. Your "common sense" sounds, quite honestly, dumb to anyone who has any basic training in the actual science that studies these things. Just because numbers sound big and unimaginable to you doesn't mean they aren't possible. There's a reason why we're doing such drastic prevention right now--we don't want the numbers to get that high! And if we keep the numbers spread out wide enough, hopefully the mortality rate for the disease decreases--because hospitals are still running at capacity.
If 500k get this virus then a fixed percentage within a reasonable margin of error will die...how do you need an advanced degree to know that?
My post was in response to you questioning the idea that 3-4 billion people could get this. So that reply is totally irrelevant.

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CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:22 am
MissouriMook wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am Well said, Brad. My motto in life that applies to most everything is that I'd rather have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. That can be applied to preparedness for anything, even a viral pandemic. Be safe everyone.
Yeah, but you are a total dipshit, so this only strengthens my argument.
A live look in the kitchen of CaptSMRT
We'll see in a few weeks who the real dumbass is.

Re: League Watch 2020

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UMSLBlues12 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:14 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:11 am

If 500k get this virus then a fixed percentage within a reasonable margin of error will die...how do you need an advanced degree to know that?
My post was in response to you questioning the idea that 3-4 billion people could get this. So that reply is totally irrelevant.
A fixed percentage of his post are.
Just a Russian propaganda account

Re: League Watch 2020

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bradleygt89 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:51 am
NHLTIM wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:46 am I know I’m buying an assault rifle with my Stimulus check....if for nothing more than to piss people off.
I thought you were against socialism?
I am against it but I’m smart enough to know that’s not socialism when they are gonna get back everything they send out via taxes anyway.
Official "Bitch Ass" Fan and proud of it"

"Suck a dick Johansen"

"Official Sponsor of the Legend....Jeremy Roenick"

Re: League Watch 2020

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MissouriMook wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:22 am
MissouriMook wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am Well said, Brad. My motto in life that applies to most everything is that I'd rather have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. That can be applied to preparedness for anything, even a viral pandemic. Be safe everyone.
Yeah, but you are a total dipshit, so this only strengthens my argument.
A live look in the kitchen of CaptSMRT

this-is-fine.0.jpg

We'll see in a few weeks who the real dumbass is.
I called you a dipshit, dumbass. I'm being cautious and not going to any stadium events, so I'll be fine. I'm pretty willing to bet that the United States will not see higher rates of infection than China or Italy, and certainly not 214 million infected and 1.7 million dead.

Re: League Watch 2020

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:04 am
bradleygt89 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:00 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 am No one knows the number of cases because not everyone is getting tested and not everyone has symptoms. We also don't know the death rate for this exact reason, especially because children can carry the virus but rarely show signs but are never factored into the stats. Do I believe the mortality rate is 3-4%? Absolutely not. Do I think it's still well above the flu? Absolutely. Do I enjoy asking myself rhetorical questions to drive home a point? sometimes.

I also think it's silly to think the Virus was first in China in November and I'm to believe it didn't arrive in the U.S until March? In what freaking world does that happen? I'd say it's been here for months and that flu I had in December could have just as easily been coronavirus. WE DON'T KNOW.

However, I also think it's a good idea to be proactive about these things instead of reactive because loss of life isn't just collateral damage. All we can do at this point is to do our part and be responsible.

If it blows by, you'll have half the country saying "see I told you it was media driven!" while the other half is screaming, "see I told you the steps we took would work and save lives!"

Support your friends, support your community, make a baby.

Just for clarity, the first 'confirmed' case of Coronavirus in the USA was in mid-January, after it was initially announced as 'discovered' on Dec 31, 2019 in Wuhan China: Scroll to the bottom of the following page: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... k-evolved/

or here is another timeline: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ ... 54884.html
That's not clarity because the first known case was tracked back to November and even that's best case considering how the Chinese government suppressed news on it. Patient 0 has not been tracked.
source? Edit: NM, found it: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/th ... r-BB119fWJ

Also, even if it was November, the first case reported in the USA was in January, not March as you had stated. And of course others could have had it before that known case in January, because it wasn't a confirmed separate virus until January, so no testing was available before then of course.
Last edited by bradleygt89 on Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Do Only Good Everyday"