Re: League Watch 2020

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barnburner wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:58 pm
CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:08 pm
BillP. wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:55 am

Factor in that the Coronavirus has been around since November or December.
Now all of the virus hype people are going to say it was their caterwauling that kept the number of cases so low.
Who cares who gets the credit, if this stuff goes away?
BB; trollers going to troll. Capn saw that no one was fighting about this anymore and wanted to try and stoke the flames ;)
"Do Only Good Everyday"

Re: League Watch 2020

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:38 pm If they play this season out, the playoffs will be some sort of gimmick style playoff and therefor (unless the blues win) I will not recognize the winner as the Stanley Cup Champion. The Blues will be the defending Stanley Cup Champions going into next season as far as Im concerned.
I do think the Blues style and structure will allow the Blues to find their game again much quicker than most teams in the league. Most teams don't play with the type of structure that the Blues do, and I anticipate those teams being a step off their game for a longer period of time. The Blues should have very little problem going back to their pinball style of hockey.

Like I was telling Matt here at work, if the Blues sucked, I'd be all for a gimmick playoff, but that isn't the case and the integrity of the regular season needs to be honored. The only gimmick they should do is have a play in for all the teams that are within striking distance of a playoff spot and let them have a play in for the WC spots. I'm cool with that............and it would be fun.

Re: League Watch 2020

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Dom at the Athletic has been using his models to simulate all of the games as they would have been happening had the NHL season not been paused. The Blues are so far 2-0 and still leading the Central and West. I believe the Blues are slight underdogs according to the model against the Flyers tonight. :lol:

Re: League Watch 2020

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Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:38 pmIf they play this season out, the playoffs will be some sort of gimmick style playoff and therefor (unless the blues win) I will not recognize the winner as the Stanley Cup Champion. The Blues will be the defending Stanley Cup Champions going into next season as far as Im concerned.
I just sent your post to the League offices & Stanley Cup trustees. You should get calls for consultation in the very near future.

ETA: See , they're listening to you already ...

Yahoo! Sports: Bettman vows any altered playoff format will do Stanley Cup 'justice'

Re: League Watch 2020

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bradleygt89 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:15 pm
barnburner wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:58 pm
CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:08 pm

Now all of the virus hype people are going to say it was their caterwauling that kept the number of cases so low.
Who cares who gets the credit, if this stuff goes away?
BB; trollers going to troll. Capn saw that no one was fighting about this anymore and wanted to try and stoke the flames ;)
Not at all. I was on the side of caution until people started running with these insane estimates. The Governor of Ohio said there are 100k infected people in his state...today there are 67 confirmed cases, these numbers do not add up. If you have 100k infected there is going to be a high rate of illness and morbidity. Tell me I am trolling after you have some data to back it up.

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"With the announcement of the 101st death on Tuesday in Washington State, the danger that the coronavirus poses — especially to older people and those with health problems — became even more clear. At least 30 of the deaths were connected to a single nursing center in Washington"

30% of the fatalities in one place.

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Hydroxy chloroquine is having a positive effect. Those given this drug have no trace after 6 days. It's being tested as a preventive measure also ,and at 5cents a tablet that's cheap. Just talked to a long time friend, his business is established but he knows what is in store for the ones that aren't. Its not rosy past 2 weeks, the banks that hold note on businesses can either forgive or foreclose, banks don't want to own property they want their money. It will all be ok in the end. Stay safe and self lubricate.

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BlueinNy wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:33 pm Hydroxy chloroquine is having a positive effect. Those given this drug have no trace after 6 days. It's being tested as a preventive measure also ,and at 5cents a tablet that's cheap. Just talked to a long time friend, his business is established but he knows what is in store for the ones that aren't. Its not rosy past 2 weeks, the banks that hold note on businesses can either forgive or foreclose, banks don't want to own property they want their money. It will all be ok in the end. Stay safe and self lubricate.
Far too many people out there who are representing wild estimates as facts and shouting down anyone who would dare question them. I dare.

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CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:41 pm
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:01 pm
A group of people who travel frequently and interact with thousands of people weekly...one got sick.
Of course it’s Ottawa lol. Nothing surprising especially considering how these sports share arena space as well. I’d expect that it’s gonna be burning through the athletes. Good thing they canceled the season before it got widespread into crowds attending games. Hopefully anyway. Good news is that I doubt any of the athletes that get it will suffer any serious harm.

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ratonmono wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:09 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:41 pm
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:01 pm
A group of people who travel frequently and interact with thousands of people weekly...one got sick.
Of course it’s Ottawa lol. Nothing surprising especially considering how these sports share arena space as well. I’d expect that it’s gonna be burning through the athletes. Good thing they canceled the season before it got widespread into crowds attending games. Hopefully anyway. Good news is that I doubt any of the athletes that get it will suffer any serious harm.
Why wouldn't it already be burning through them? They travel frequently which would put them in a high risk group for transmission...but only one guy has it so far.

Re: League Watch 2020

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CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:15 pm
bradleygt89 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:15 pm
barnburner wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:58 pm

Who cares who gets the credit, if this stuff goes away?
BB; trollers going to troll. Capn saw that no one was fighting about this anymore and wanted to try and stoke the flames ;)
Not at all. I was on the side of caution until people started running with these insane estimates. The Governor of Ohio said there are 100k infected people in his state...today there are 67 confirmed cases, these numbers do not add up. If you have 100k infected there is going to be a high rate of illness and morbidity. Tell me I am trolling after you have some data to back it up.
Those 'insane estimates' from what I understand are based on IF we as a nation did not take action, and includes both folks with symptoms and those without. Action is being taken so we will see what happens and hopefully those numbers do turn out to be gross exaggerations of modeling. But two things to keep in mind (and I am sure our resident epidemiologist will correct me if I'm wrong):

1.Not everyone who is infected with any virus, including Coronaviruses, are going to show symptoms, or enough symptoms to be tested. How often have you been around a family member or friend who is beat down with the flu virus, but you personally don't get as sick? With three elementary school kids and a wife who works in education, I can tell you it happens to me a lot. Just two weeks ago one of my girls was down for a whole week with a positive test for the flu. I stayed home with her and took care of her the whole time so my wife and my other two girls wouldn't be exposed. I can guarantee that I was probably infected too, but never got the same symptoms. So there are a lot more asymptomatic cases of folks who are probably infected that do not know it.

2. The USA as a whole is way, way, way behind in testing. Again, this is based on news from multiple sources, there are many folks who ARE showing symptoms who are not being tested. Most of those being tested currently are those who either have a higher level of health care and access (wonder why professional athletes, Tom Hanks, and politicians are getting tested so fast?) or whom are in more serious conditions that they require hospitalization or some kind of medical care.

And here are the numbers. I am not a statistician, but I don't think you need to be one to see the extreme increase in the rate of both positive confirmed testings along with the higher number of fatalities.

3-8-20: USA had 465 confirmed cases
3-14-20: USA had 2796 confirmed cases
3-18-20:USA has 6496 confirmed cases. (average of almost 1k new cases per day)

Remember, the whole idea of 'overreacting' is to PREVENT further spread of the virus. IF we don't take action soon, our numbers will be like Italy's...or even worse. Let's look at Italy on those same dates:

3-8-20: Italy had 5883 confirmed cases (less than we are today in the USA)
3-14-20: Italy had 21,157 confirmed cases
3-18-20: Italy has 31,506 confirmed cases (10k new cases, or an average of around 2.5k new cases per day)

No one should panic, and I think it is good to ask questions. Just understand that by being prepared to 'shelter in place' and shutting down non-essential businesses is a proven method of reducing the viruses spread on such a fast rate. We still may see the same number of cases. The POINT of the hype' if you wish to call it that is so the rate of infection is slowed down so the healthcare system can handle it better. I mean hey, if you don't believe the confirmed stories coming out of Italy where medical professionals are having to make 'war time decisions' on who gets treated and who is left to day, then I don't know what to say. Don't be scared, just be prepared and follow the guidance of the professionals.

PS: I honestly thought you were just trolling and trying to stir the pot. No offense meant and when I share what I see and data I find, it isn't to beat anyone up or put them down, its just to hopefully raise awareness that this ISN'T a joke or a hoax. I have lived in Florida for over 15 years now and been through multiple hurricanes and tropical storm events, yet never directly hit (been affected, but no major damage). See it every year where the 'next big one' is going to wipe out the community I live in. But you know what we do every year anyway? We prepare. So even though I may live here another 50+ years (hopefully :) ) and never get hit directly by a major hurricane, I am always going to prepare as if "this is the year". Because something I've learned in life is that it is better to be over-prepared (within reason) than under-prepared.

Peace and be safe and prepared Capn!

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
"Do Only Good Everyday"

Re: League Watch 2020

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CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:17 pm "With the announcement of the 101st death on Tuesday in Washington State, the danger that the coronavirus poses — especially to older people and those with health problems — became even more clear. At least 30 of the deaths were connected to a single nursing center in Washington"

30% of the fatalities in one place.
True, but you can play with the numbers to fit whatever argument you want to make. Yes, 30% in one place. But look at the number of deaths nationwide, pretty sure you will find the number of deaths over 60 years of age, will be a much higher percentage than that.
Tells me that if I get it, my chances of survival are not good. For people like me and my wife, this virus is a VERY real life and death matter. Our granddaughters are checking with us regularly, out of fear that they are going to lose us. For them, no matter how much I try to reassure them, this virus is very real also.
But, my family is just one of millions in the same situation. I guess what I'm trying to bring to the forefront, is that this is more than just an academic argument.
Jmo

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MissouriMook wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am Well said, Brad. My motto in life that applies to most everything is that I'd rather have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. That can be applied to preparedness for anything, even a viral pandemic. Be safe everyone.
Agreed. Me personally I almost never get sick. One of the reasons I decided to just self isolate is because I could very well be carrying the damn thing without knowing it. If in the unlikely event I did/do have it and went about my business as normal who knows how many I would spread it to. Too many is my guess. Gave me a good excuse to resign from a job I hated anyway. Gonna take this time to get myself right and catch up on a shit ton of movies/shows.

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bradleygt89 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:25 am
CaptSMRT wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:15 pm
bradleygt89 wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:15 pm

BB; trollers going to troll. Capn saw that no one was fighting about this anymore and wanted to try and stoke the flames ;)
Not at all. I was on the side of caution until people started running with these insane estimates. The Governor of Ohio said there are 100k infected people in his state...today there are 67 confirmed cases, these numbers do not add up. If you have 100k infected there is going to be a high rate of illness and morbidity. Tell me I am trolling after you have some data to back it up.
Those 'insane estimates' from what I understand are based on IF we as a nation did not take action, and includes both folks with symptoms and those without. Action is being taken so we will see what happens and hopefully those numbers do turn out to be gross exaggerations of modeling. But two things to keep in mind (and I am sure our resident epidemiologist will correct me if I'm wrong):

1.Not everyone who is infected with any virus, including Coronaviruses, are going to show symptoms, or enough symptoms to be tested. How often have you been around a family member or friend who is beat down with the flu virus, but you personally don't get as sick? With three elementary school kids and a wife who works in education, I can tell you it happens to me a lot. Just two weeks ago one of my girls was down for a whole week with a positive test for the flu. I stayed home with her and took care of her the whole time so my wife and my other two girls wouldn't be exposed. I can guarantee that I was probably infected too, but never got the same symptoms. So there are a lot more asymptomatic cases of folks who are probably infected that do not know it.

2. The USA as a whole is way, way, way behind in testing. Again, this is based on news from multiple sources, there are many folks who ARE showing symptoms who are not being tested. Most of those being tested currently are those who either have a higher level of health care and access (wonder why professional athletes, Tom Hanks, and politicians are getting tested so fast?) or whom are in more serious conditions that they require hospitalization or some kind of medical care.

And here are the numbers. I am not a statistician, but I don't think you need to be one to see the extreme increase in the rate of both positive confirmed testings along with the higher number of fatalities.

3-8-20: USA had 465 confirmed cases
3-14-20: USA had 2796 confirmed cases
3-18-20:USA has 6496 confirmed cases. (average of almost 1k new cases per day)

Remember, the whole idea of 'overreacting' is to PREVENT further spread of the virus. IF we don't take action soon, our numbers will be like Italy's...or even worse. Let's look at Italy on those same dates:

3-8-20: Italy had 5883 confirmed cases (less than we are today in the USA)
3-14-20: Italy had 21,157 confirmed cases
3-18-20: Italy has 31,506 confirmed cases (10k new cases, or an average of around 2.5k new cases per day)

No one should panic, and I think it is good to ask questions. Just understand that by being prepared to 'shelter in place' and shutting down non-essential businesses is a proven method of reducing the viruses spread on such a fast rate. We still may see the same number of cases. The POINT of the hype' if you wish to call it that is so the rate of infection is slowed down so the healthcare system can handle it better. I mean hey, if you don't believe the confirmed stories coming out of Italy where medical professionals are having to make 'war time decisions' on who gets treated and who is left to day, then I don't know what to say. Don't be scared, just be prepared and follow the guidance of the professionals.

PS: I honestly thought you were just trolling and trying to stir the pot. No offense meant and when I share what I see and data I find, it isn't to beat anyone up or put them down, its just to hopefully raise awareness that this ISN'T a joke or a hoax. I have lived in Florida for over 15 years now and been through multiple hurricanes and tropical storm events, yet never directly hit (been affected, but no major damage). See it every year where the 'next big one' is going to wipe out the community I live in. But you know what we do every year anyway? We prepare. So even though I may live here another 50+ years (hopefully :) ) and never get hit directly by a major hurricane, I am always going to prepare as if "this is the year". Because something I've learned in life is that it is better to be over-prepared (within reason) than under-prepared.

Peace and be safe and prepared Capn!

FireShot Capture 102 - Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com 3-18-20 World.png

FireShot Capture 304 - Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com World 3-14-2020.png

Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com 3-8-2020.png


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
Those "insane" estimate are that....they are insane. If there are 500k infected in America then 40k people will die according to the comorbidity rates out of China and Italy, tested or not. People representing false equivalence as facts is exhausting.

3-8-20: USA had 465 confirmed cases
3-14-20: USA had 2796 confirmed cases
3-18-20:USA has 6496 confirmed cases. (average of almost 1k new cases per day)


This rise in confirmed cases is more likely due to increased awareness and does not support the idea that there are 100's of thousands of unreported or untested cases.

2. The USA as a whole is way, way, way behind in testing. Again, this is based on news from multiple sources, there are many folks who ARE showing symptoms who are not being tested

It doesn't matter if you test or not...the comorbidity rates do not support the assumption there are 500k-214 million infected.

No one should panic, and I think it is good to ask questions. Just understand that by being prepared to 'shelter in place' and shutting down non-essential businesses

Put people out of business, so you can have the illusion of safety, even when the numbers don't add up. I'm sorry, that isn't good enough for me.