Re: League Watch 2020

178
CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
We have sympathy for you. Keep fighting, brother.
Thanks! Always fighting. Thankfully for me I’m youngish, physically healthy and my only problem is booze. I have a lot of good people I know with far worse issues and unfortunately sometimes require hospitalization. I just worry about the most at risk of us as usual they suffer the worst in these situations.

Re: League Watch 2020

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ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:23 pm
CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
We have sympathy for you. Keep fighting, brother.
Thanks! Always fighting. Thankfully for me I’m youngish, physically healthy and my only problem is booze.

Re: League Watch 2020

180
BillP. wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:37 pm
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:23 pm
CaptSMRT wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am

We have sympathy for you. Keep fighting, brother.
Thanks! Always fighting. Thankfully for me I’m youngish, physically healthy and my only problem is booze.
Ha! I only knew the Family Guy version of that song. Shoulda known he nabbed it.

Re: League Watch 2020

181
UMSLBlues12 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:21 am
netboy65 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:12 am My question this whole time has been, ok, things are shut down, how is the timing determined? i.e. we shut everything down for 2 weeks (just to throw a number out there) everything is deemed ok, everything goes back to normal, and then the infection starts to spread. How did they know to do it now?
Timing is difficult to determine. In an epidemic scenario, what often happens is you sit there and realize things we could have done two weeks ago that would have helped. So, people in my profession have to kind of think ahead--what could this look like in two weeks if we don't do anything, and what would we wish we would have done then? To clarify this point a bit, they're not just thinking ahead, a lot of statistics and data analysis goes into making these types of calls. An example of this (and I don't want to get too political here, but this is a bit of an inherently political topic) is the President's order to restricting travel from Europe. Personally, I think that is useless today, because the virus is already here and its spreading person to person here. Two weeks ago though? That could have been really helpful, while at the same time probably seeming like a big overreaction.

As for the timeline for how long we shut everything down for--we have to see what happens after we've had things shut down and basically look at the data (which is why testing people is so damn important) and literally play it by ear. Are new cases by day flattening? Keep doing what we're doing. Are they increasing? We might need to do even more prevention. Are they going down? Probably time that we can start easing back into normal life. The goal is to not have that scenario you mention where we shut down for a time period, then go back to normal, and it starts to rapidly spread. If that happens, we totally wasted our efforts shutting stuff down.

A lot of the projections I've seen is that things are still going to get worse, probably through mid-May at least. Its obviously up to sports folks when they start back up again, or if they play but have no crowds, etc, but typical life is going to be paused for more than two weeks for sure.
Thanks UMSL, my other musing, is not counting all the internet "experts" like us, can regular medical folks that get put on tv or in articles agree on something? I've read/heard everything from "The sky is falling", to "Calm down, everything is fine"

Re: League Watch 2020

183
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:45 am
barnburner wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:26 pm
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:39 pm As I said before, put me in the camp that thinks the NHL season is done.

I think you're right
Imagine winning the cup in front of no fans and not being able to have a parade
I am holding out hope for playoffs. I liked the scenario of having a "best of 3" playoff with the WC 1 v #10 conf team, and the #WC2 v #9 conf. team. Highest seed to come out plays the #2 team in the conf.

Re: League Watch 2020

184
netboy65 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:19 am
UMSLBlues12 wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:21 am Timing is difficult to determine. In an epidemic scenario, what often happens is you sit there and realize things we could have done two weeks ago that would have helped. So, people in my profession have to kind of think ahead--what could this look like in two weeks if we don't do anything, and what would we wish we would have done then? To clarify this point a bit, they're not just thinking ahead, a lot of statistics and data analysis goes into making these types of calls. An example of this (and I don't want to get too political here, but this is a bit of an inherently political topic) is the President's order to restricting travel from Europe. Personally, I think that is useless today, because the virus is already here and its spreading person to person here. Two weeks ago though? That could have been really helpful, while at the same time probably seeming like a big overreaction.

As for the timeline for how long we shut everything down for--we have to see what happens after we've had things shut down and basically look at the data (which is why testing people is so damn important) and literally play it by ear. Are new cases by day flattening? Keep doing what we're doing. Are they increasing? We might need to do even more prevention. Are they going down? Probably time that we can start easing back into normal life. The goal is to not have that scenario you mention where we shut down for a time period, then go back to normal, and it starts to rapidly spread. If that happens, we totally wasted our efforts shutting stuff down.

A lot of the projections I've seen is that things are still going to get worse, probably through mid-May at least. Its obviously up to sports folks when they start back up again, or if they play but have no crowds, etc, but typical life is going to be paused for more than two weeks for sure.
Thanks UMSL, my other musing, is not counting all the internet "experts" like us, can regular medical folks that get put on tv or in articles agree on something? I've read/heard everything from "The sky is falling", to "Calm down, everything is fine"
I alluded to this back in a post a few pages back, but a big issue is the media does not know who to interview really. They assume an expert in health situations are people with MDs, and a lot of the time they are. However, most MDs don't know much about public health (and thus not much about epidemics/pandemics), because medical school is all about learning how to treat individual patients, not about how to design, evaluate, and perform prevention initiatives for the public. So part of the problem is, they just interview MDs they know, and oftentimes those MDs are people who have become media personalities, and thus have their own built-in biases and such. Like, I keep seeing shit with "Dr. Drew". That dude doesn't have any business discussing this kind of stuff, and its pretty clear listening to him he's not really giving medical advice--he's speaking to his own personal biases that have clearly been developed through having a long career as a syndicated talk host.

The best expert I've seen on this is Dr. Fauci at the NIH. Dude knows what he's talking about--he's the guy who figured out a lot about what we know with regards to HIV/AIDS in the 80s. He's had a long career in government public health and seems adept at both navigating the politics while still speaking scientific truth to the public. If there's one guy to listen to through this I'd say its him.

As you've probably guessed, the truth about this relies between those two "extremes". The sky is falling in Italy, I'd say--their healthcare system is crippled due to having too many patients for not enough hospital beds. The sky isn't falling here, but if we don't act (which for most of us means social distancing) we will end up like Italy eventually, and then the sky will be falling.

Re: League Watch 2020

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jfbop37 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:22 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:45 am
barnburner wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:26 pm

I think you're right
Imagine winning the cup in front of no fans and not being able to have a parade
I am holding out hope for playoffs. I liked the scenario of having a "best of 3" playoff with the WC 1 v #10 conf team, and the #WC2 v #9 conf. team. Highest seed to come out plays the #2 team in the conf.
I saw a tweet from some reporter that 24 teams would make the playoffs if they go straight into the playoffs. There'd presumably be some type of first round where most of the teams currently in playoff spots get buys, while the teams on the bubble basically have a round to then get into what would be the "normal" first playoff round. I kind of like this idea because it gives bubble teams a shot to get in (which would be the main complaint if they go straight into the playoffs--"if we played the rest of the season we could have made it even though we're currently out of a spot!") while not risking the top teams who were already for sure in the playoffs losing like a 3 game series or whatever they do to like the 10th seed in the conference.

Re: League Watch 2020

188
UMSLBlues12 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:34 am
jfbop37 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:22 am
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:45 am

Imagine winning the cup in front of no fans and not being able to have a parade
I am holding out hope for playoffs. I liked the scenario of having a "best of 3" playoff with the WC 1 v #10 conf team, and the #WC2 v #9 conf. team. Highest seed to come out plays the #2 team in the conf.
I saw a tweet from some reporter that 24 teams would make the playoffs if they go straight into the playoffs. There'd presumably be some type of first round where most of the teams currently in playoff spots get buys, while the teams on the bubble basically have a round to then get into what would be the "normal" first playoff round. I kind of like this idea because it gives bubble teams a shot to get in (which would be the main complaint if they go straight into the playoffs--"if we played the rest of the season we could have made it even though we're currently out of a spot!") while not risking the top teams who were already for sure in the playoffs losing like a 3 game series or whatever they do to like the 10th seed in the conference.
The only thing that I wouldn't like about this from the Blues perspective is that it would give the team that they will play in round 2 some games to shake off the rust. Meanwhile the Blues will have been sitting for some time.
KA-KAW!

Re: League Watch 2020

189
BillP. wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:59 am The NBA is talking about not coming back till June. WTF
Honestly, that timeline seems optimistic.

On a personal note; All of Luzon and every major city in the Philippines is now on a total lockdown until the middle of April. Schools have been closed for awhile now. Malls and stores all closed unless essential services. Curfews from 5 AM to 8 PM, public transport suspended, non essential services halted, movement by non-essential personnel extremely limited. This will all be coming to a town near you so get ready. Stock up and not just on toilet paper.

I have 72 hours to make arrangements to exit the country or else I have to stay here for another month. My trip back to Canada was supposed next Tuesday. I don't know if I will be able to get out on time.

Re: League Watch 2020

190
BluesSK wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am
BillP. wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:59 am The NBA is talking about not coming back till June. WTF
Honestly, that timeline seems optimistic.

On a personal note; All of Luzon and every major city in the Philippines is now on a total lockdown until the middle of April. Schools have been closed for awhile now. Malls and stores all closed unless essential services. Curfews from 5 AM to 8 PM, public transport suspended, non essential services halted, movement by non-essential personnel extremely limited. This will all be coming to a town near you so get ready. Stock up and not just on toilet paper.

I have 72 hours to make arrangements to exit the country or else I have to stay here for another month. My trip back to Canada was supposed next Tuesday. I don't know if I will be able to get out on time.
Man you got it tough. Wish you luck and stay healthy! Build up your immunity. D, A, C, garlic, Olive Leaf, etc

Re: League Watch 2020

191
BillP. wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:04 am
BluesSK wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 am
BillP. wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:59 am The NBA is talking about not coming back till June. WTF
Honestly, that timeline seems optimistic.

On a personal note; All of Luzon and every major city in the Philippines is now on a total lockdown until the middle of April. Schools have been closed for awhile now. Malls and stores all closed unless essential services. Curfews from 5 AM to 8 PM, public transport suspended, non essential services halted, movement by non-essential personnel extremely limited. This will all be coming to a town near you so get ready. Stock up and not just on toilet paper.

I have 72 hours to make arrangements to exit the country or else I have to stay here for another month. My trip back to Canada was supposed next Tuesday. I don't know if I will be able to get out on time.
Man you got it tough. Wish you luck and stay healthy! Build up your immunity. D, A, C, garlic, Olive Leaf, etc
Nah. I can leave. People who live here are going to have a month they will never forget.

Re: League Watch 2020

194
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
I was addicted to heroin for a lil over 2 years. My sober date is 10/12/10. It gets easier every day.
I hope Snuggerud beats the shit out of Kyrou

Re: League Watch 2020

195
Ozzies09tc wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 pm
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
I was addicted to heroin for a lil over 2 years. My sober date is 10/12/10. It gets easier every day.
Best wishes brother! Proud of you. I tried H in my early 20s luckily only three times and it was twenty years ago not nearly as readily available as I hear it is now. I got three days sober at the moment.
Selfishly closing down bars would be great for me as I’m very much a social drinker. If I’m home on my couch I’m staying out of trouble.

Re: League Watch 2020

196
ratonmono wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:25 pm
Ozzies09tc wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 pm
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
I was addicted to heroin for a lil over 2 years. My sober date is 10/12/10. It gets easier every day.
Best wishes brother! Proud of you. I tried H in my early 20s luckily only three times and it was twenty years ago not nearly as readily available as I hear it is now. I got three days sober at the moment.
Selfishly closing down bars would be great for me as I’m very much a social drinker. If I’m home on my couch I’m staying out of trouble.
I think I can speak for everyone hear. We're behind you and keep on keeping on. Prayers.

Re: League Watch 2020

200
ratonmono wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:25 pm
Ozzies09tc wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:03 pm
ratonmono wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:50 am Another issue that’s close to my heart personally all joking aside is that those of us in recovery (or struggling at recovery as I am) will be in a rough spot should the ICU get hit as hard as Italy did.

I know many do not have sympathy for people like me but having lots of brothers and sisters in recovery I truly hope we curbed this thing early enough to avoid total gridlock for everyone’s sake.
I was addicted to heroin for a lil over 2 years. My sober date is 10/12/10. It gets easier every day.
Best wishes brother! Proud of you. I tried H in my early 20s luckily only three times and it was twenty years ago not nearly as readily available as I hear it is now. I got three days sober at the moment.
Selfishly closing down bars would be great for me as I’m very much a social drinker. If I’m home on my couch I’m staying out of trouble.
Damn Ratt...wishing you all the best in your struggles. We all have our demons...you ain’t alone brother.
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