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Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

651 by Dave's a mess
The Athletic has been doing a daily countdown of team previews in reverse order of predicted finish. The previews are pretty much entirely based on their head "fancy stats" guy's model. Today is the Blues preview, which means they check in at 4th overall and 1st in the West. Link for subscribers (https://theathletic.com/1234623/2019/09 ... uis-blues/) and some of my notes for the rest of you no good parasites! ;)

-Dom (the author) actually revised his model this offseason after watching the Blues last year. This year he gave added weight to expected goals and less to corsi, which suits the Blues style.
-We all know about the forward depth, but he points out the only weakness is LW depth behind Schwartz. To me, that's another big reason Kostin has a real shot at making an impact this year. Dom states Blues have top 5 C/RW groups overall.
-He really likes Thomas. He might be best served staying on 3rd line for now based on personnel, but he's going to be a top six monster soon.
-Praises Petro/Parayko on D, says Petro ranks 11th overall D by some fancy stat I've never heard of, and Parayko ranked as the #1 defenseman on the defensive side of things. That seems good.
-Loves the potential Dunn/Petro pair. We'll see if they roll out that way next week. I wonder if they put those two together when they need a goal as they have in the past.
-Projects Binnington to have a .917 save%. The fact that his model predicts the Blues to win the West with a 10% drop in save% from Binnington is great to see. We said this quite often during the dark days last year, this team doesn't even need great goaltending, it just needs average to be competitive. When they do get great goaltending, well, we all remember what happens.

This was a good in depth preview that didn't seem like a national guy just swooping in and not really understanding the team. Worth your time if you have a chance. Also got me pretty fired up for next week. LGB!!
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

652 by NHLTIM
Taken from Friedman’s 31 thoughts

13. Also off to a great start is St. Louis’s Klim Kostin, who will face tougher opposition in the second week of games. I think he came up in Jesse Puljujarvi discussions, and no one’s ever doubted his talent. Big week for him.
Official "Bitch Ass" Fan and proud of it"

"Suck a dick Johansen"

"Official Sponsor of the Legend....Jeremy Roenick"

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

653 by UMSLBlues12
Dave's a mess wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:27 am The Athletic has been doing a daily countdown of team previews in reverse order of predicted finish. The previews are pretty much entirely based on their head "fancy stats" guy's model. Today is the Blues preview, which means they check in at 4th overall and 1st in the West. Link for subscribers (https://theathletic.com/1234623/2019/09 ... uis-blues/) and some of my notes for the rest of you no good parasites! ;)

-Dom (the author) actually revised his model this offseason after watching the Blues last year. This year he gave added weight to expected goals and less to corsi, which suits the Blues style.
-We all know about the forward depth, but he points out the only weakness is LW depth behind Schwartz. To me, that's another big reason Kostin has a real shot at making an impact this year. Dom states Blues have top 5 C/RW groups overall.
-He really likes Thomas. He might be best served staying on 3rd line for now based on personnel, but he's going to be a top six monster soon.
-Praises Petro/Parayko on D, says Petro ranks 11th overall D by some fancy stat I've never heard of, and Parayko ranked as the #1 defenseman on the defensive side of things. That seems good.
-Loves the potential Dunn/Petro pair. We'll see if they roll out that way next week. I wonder if they put those two together when they need a goal as they have in the past.
-Projects Binnington to have a .917 save%. The fact that his model predicts the Blues to win the West with a 10% drop in save% from Binnington is great to see. We said this quite often during the dark days last year, this team doesn't even need great goaltending, it just needs average to be competitive. When they do get great goaltending, well, we all remember what happens.

This was a good in depth preview that didn't seem like a national guy just swooping in and not really understanding the team. Worth your time if you have a chance. Also got me pretty fired up for next week. LGB!!
Reading that, I didn't realize Tarasenko had 46 points in 39 games during our surge. I knew he was good, but damn, not that good. If he keeps that pace up for a season he'll flirt with 90 points.

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

654 by UMSLBlues12
One other thing about the Athletic preview--if Thomas progresses well, that could remove our weakness on LW by moving Schenn back to wing and Thomas to C:

Schenn-ROR-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Thomas-Perron
Fabbri-Bozak-Blais/Sanford
Barbashev-SunnyD-Steen

Going to be an interesting season. I'm hoping for a lot of growth from Thomas this year.

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

655 by BillP.
According to preseason Stanley Cup odds provided to FiveThirtyEight by the betting sites SportsBetting.ag and BetOnline.ag, St. Louis is a 16-to-1 bet to repeat its title as it takes the ice Wednesday on the first day of the 2019-20 season. After adjusting for the vigorish, those odds imply a mere 4.5 percent Cup probability for the defending champs, which is tied with the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets for the sixth-best odds of any team.

For a defending champion, a 4.5 percent chance of repeating is outrageously low. Using archived odds from SportsBetting/BetOnline for seasons since 2010, combined with moneyline data from Hockey-Reference.com for seasons from 1985 to 2009, we cobbled together over three decades of implied preseason Stanley Cup probabilities. And over that span, no defending champ has gotten less respect from the preseason bookmakers than these St. Louis Blues.

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

656 by Dave's a mess
BillP. wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:27 pm According to preseason Stanley Cup odds provided to FiveThirtyEight by the betting sites SportsBetting.ag and BetOnline.ag, St. Louis is a 16-to-1 bet to repeat its title as it takes the ice Wednesday on the first day of the 2019-20 season. After adjusting for the vigorish, those odds imply a mere 4.5 percent Cup probability for the defending champs, which is tied with the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets for the sixth-best odds of any team.

For a defending champion, a 4.5 percent chance of repeating is outrageously low. Using archived odds from SportsBetting/BetOnline for seasons since 2010, combined with moneyline data from Hockey-Reference.com for seasons from 1985 to 2009, we cobbled together over three decades of implied preseason Stanley Cup probabilities. And over that span, no defending champ has gotten less respect from the preseason bookmakers than these St. Louis Blues.
Those sites just want to make money. Not as much money coming in on the Blues since all of us fans spent so much on champagne this summer.
...but whatever, the Blues won the Cup!!!!!

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

661 by JMC-STL
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:52 pmWhat's new at Enterprise this year.

https://www.nhl.com/blues/news/whats-ne ... -309595184
"Sensory Inclusive"? Not trying to be an ass (any more than usual), but if I had a friend or family member with "sensory needs or processing issues" a hockey game in an indoor arena where peak noise levels regularly exceed 120 dBA would be the LAST place I'd wanna take them. Even if we were given a fidget tool for each trembling hand & a suitable pair of noise-canceling headphones properly fitted. Sometimes our society's efforts to be "inclusive" do more harm than good.

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

662 by T.C.
JMC-STL wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:35 pm
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:52 pmWhat's new at Enterprise this year.

https://www.nhl.com/blues/news/whats-ne ... -309595184
"Sensory Inclusive"? Not trying to be an ass (any more than usual), but if I had a friend or family member with "sensory needs or processing issues" a hockey game in an indoor arena where peak noise levels regularly exceed 120 dBA would be the LAST place I'd wanna take them. Even if we were given a fidget tool for each trembling hand & a suitable pair of noise-canceling headphones properly fitted. Sometimes our society's efforts to be "inclusive" do more harm than good.
applause. why the fuck would either a) you bring someone like that to an event like this, or b) you, having these types of issues, agree to go to an event like this? also, the idea here is that rather than leaving to help your family member/friend/whatever de-escalate back to baseline levels of anxiety, you hand them a bag of toys and say here, deal with it for another two hours or so? what kind of human are you?

meanwhile, still not remotely enough tables anywhere to eat all the food they sell where maybe your elbows aren't touching.

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

671 by bradleygt89
T.C. wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:47 pm
JMC-STL wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:35 pm
Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:52 pmWhat's new at Enterprise this year.

https://www.nhl.com/blues/news/whats-ne ... -309595184
"Sensory Inclusive"? Not trying to be an ass (any more than usual), but if I had a friend or family member with "sensory needs or processing issues" a hockey game in an indoor arena where peak noise levels regularly exceed 120 dBA would be the LAST place I'd wanna take them. Even if we were given a fidget tool for each trembling hand & a suitable pair of noise-canceling headphones properly fitted. Sometimes our society's efforts to be "inclusive" do more harm than good.
applause. why the fuck would either a) you bring someone like that to an event like this, or b) you, having these types of issues, agree to go to an event like this? also, the idea here is that rather than leaving to help your family member/friend/whatever de-escalate back to baseline levels of anxiety, you hand them a bag of toys and say here, deal with it for another two hours or so? what kind of human are you?

meanwhile, still not remotely enough tables anywhere to eat all the food they sell where maybe your elbows aren't touching.
you do realize I'm sure that there are varying degree of 'sensory sensitivity'. And if the program the Blues rolls out helps anyone enjoy a live Blues game, why the fuck would anyone be against it? Is it hurting you for them to be there? From what I've read and seen online, the response has been positive from those who have family members with sensory needs, so that is all that should matter. Why judge something unless it affects you or your loved one directly?
"Do Only Good Everyday"

Re: 2019-2020 St. Louis Blues

674 by bradleygt89
barnburner wrote: Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:01 pm I used to see a blind guy at the games. Never understood how he was understanding what was happening, but he seemed happy, so more power to him.
Que the 'of course the refs were happy' jokes ;)

That's all I'm saying; if someone is enjoying the game, more power to them. Hell, when my wife was pregnant with the triplets is when we had our 10 game passes to Lightning games. We made it to the first few no problem, but once she was wheelchair bound, we still went. We had to leave early a couple of times, including the game 8 of our pass vs the Rangers...and she was on bed rest in the hospital shortly after that so we didn't get to see the last 2 games of the pass. But we had great memories and fun during the games we got to go to, even if we had to sit in the handicap area the last few. Point being, I love to see everyone enjoy this great game, and if someone cannot handle the noise and excitement level, hopefully they or whomever is with them will know it is OK to leave early if they have to. We also have to remember not everyone who comes to the game is as rabid or diehard of a fan as we are now, just as we ALL were once new to the game. /
"Do Only Good Everyday"
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