MissouriMook wrote:

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote:

NHLTIM wrote:
He scores goals..and I think he will score goals at the NHL level. What does he say about Mitch Stephens?

Venmo me the monthly Athletic fee and I'll gladly tell you.

"HAVE A CHANCE

9. Mitchell Stephens, C, Syracuse-AHL

Stephens was very good as a rookie pro, as a quality two-way forward for Syracuse and their representative at the AHL all-star game. He’s not a flashy player but has a well-rounded game. He skates well and brings a ton of energy to every shift. Stephens has good hockey sense and can make quality plays. He isn’t dynamic, but he can handle the puck fine and has a decent shot. He’s strong in puck battles and can kill penalties, as well."

To which I would say that if AHL All-Star Mitchell Stephens is your 9th best prospect you've got a pretty solid prospect pool. Certainly not 30th in the NHL.

Exactly

With that said...it's all good. Our lives aren't going to change in regards to Pronman's prospect rankings. I don't really follow Pronman so I don't know how hit or miss he is.

Also to be fair to Pronman, he basically says that he values top end talent more so than depth NHL players - her was his explanation before he started posting the listing:

"These are my opinions on the players evaluated, as well as the systems those players are a part of, based on my own research. These opinions may differ at times from some NHL sources, even at times significantly.

I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

I value goalie prospects very conservatively. In the past 10 years or so, I’ve only rated one goalie who I thought would be a top-tier player (Andrei Vasilevskiy) and only a handful who I’d project to be a starting goalie in the NHL.

I also split players up into tiers that will be seen throughout this feature. Here is how you should interpret them:

Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
Depth: Player who doesn’t have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.

A player is no longer considered an NHL prospect if he has played more than 25 NHL games in any single season, 50 career NHL games or is older than age 27 as of Sept. 15, 2018. All other players are considered eligible.

For those interested....

LA is #10

Florida is #9.

For those wondering how he ranks them: I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

He has the Blues in the top 4. I forgot how much he loved Bokk at the draft as well, and he was already super high on Kyrou and Thomas so this isn't super surprising.

5. New York Islanders

6. Montreal Canadiens

7. Detroit Red Wings

8. Vegas Golden Knights

9. Florida Panthers

10. Los Angeles Kings

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote:For those wondering how he ranks them: I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

He has the Blues in the top 4. I forgot how much he loved Bokk at the draft as well, and he was already super high on Kyrou and Thomas so this isn't super surprising.

5. New York Islanders

6. Montreal Canadiens

7. Detroit Red Wings

8. Vegas Golden Knights

9. Florida Panthers

10. Los Angeles Kings

So......
Buffalo
Carolina
St. Louis
Vancouver

That's your top 4.

1st rnd Avg. Draft Pos. ('13-'18)
Buffalo - #5 OA (7 1st rnd picks)
Carolina - #7 OA (7 1st rnd)
St. Louis - #23 OA (5 1st rnd)
Vancouver - #9 OA (8 1st rnd)

One of these teams is not like the others....

Just another endorsement of Bill Armstrong & the scouting staff's ability to find good players later in drafts.

usmcaaron wrote:

Dread_Pirate_Westley wrote:For those wondering how he ranks them: I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

He has the Blues in the top 4. I forgot how much he loved Bokk at the draft as well, and he was already super high on Kyrou and Thomas so this isn't super surprising.

5. New York Islanders

6. Montreal Canadiens

7. Detroit Red Wings

8. Vegas Golden Knights

9. Florida Panthers

10. Los Angeles Kings

So......
Buffalo
Carolina
St. Louis
Vancouver

That's your top 4.

1st rnd Avg. Draft Pos. ('13-'18)
Buffalo - #5 OA (7 1st rnd picks)
Carolina - #7 OA (7 1st rnd)
St. Louis - #23 OA (5 1st rnd)
Vancouver - #9 OA (8 1st rnd)

One of these teams is not like the others....

Just another endorsement of Bill Armstrong & the scouting staff's ability to find good players later in drafts.

He's a damn national treasure. Have to enjoy him while we have him.

As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

Tfriede2 wrote:As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

usmcaaron wrote:

Tfriede2 wrote:As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

Just to be a bit of a contrarian, just because he's a great scout doesn't mean he'd do well as a GM. I have no reason to doubt him of course, but it's possible his current role is the one he's best suited for. If a promotion in title keeps him in the organization, I'm all for it, but I'm not of the mind that he's a lock to be a great GM just because he's got a good eye for amateur talent.

Dave's a mess wrote:

usmcaaron wrote:

Tfriede2 wrote:As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

Just to be a bit of a contrarian, just because he's a great scout doesn't mean he'd do well as a GM. I have no reason to doubt him of course, but it's possible his current role is the one he's best suited for. If a promotion in title keeps him in the organization, I'm all for it, but I'm not of the mind that he's a lock to be a great GM just because he's got a good eye for amateur talent.

Totally agree...there's so much more to running an entire organ-eye-zation than just running a scouting dept.

Dave's a mess wrote:

usmcaaron wrote:

Tfriede2 wrote:As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

Just to be a bit of a contrarian, just because he's a great scout doesn't mean he'd do well as a GM. I have no reason to doubt him of course, but it's possible his current role is the one he's best suited for. If a promotion in title keeps him in the organization, I'm all for it, but I'm not of the mind that he's a lock to be a great GM just because he's got a good eye for amateur talent.

I have similar thoughts - and who knows if he wants to even get involved in the management side of the house along with his talent evaluation side. Is his title still Director of Amateur Scouting? If making him the highest paid head of scouting or giving him a trumped up title will suffice, he's definitely earned it.

I wonder how much Brodeur has worked with Allen and how that could impact this season.

Dave's a mess wrote:

usmcaaron wrote:

Tfriede2 wrote:As for the above post, this should be a bigger story, because BA’s deal expired in June. With Brodeur’s departure, I think BA is in line for a promotion. I suspect he would still retain his position in scouting (i’d hope so, anyway), but in order to keep BA, the Blues will likely need to promote him sooner rather than later. I can absolutely see BA as a GM in the NHL.

I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

Just to be a bit of a contrarian, just because he's a great scout doesn't mean he'd do well as a GM. I have no reason to doubt him of course, but it's possible his current role is the one he's best suited for. If a promotion in title keeps him in the organization, I'm all for it, but I'm not of the mind that he's a lock to be a great GM just because he's got a good eye for amateur talent.

For sure - that's not being contrarian, just realistic, haha. I'm not sure if he'd be a good GM either, but it appears clear (from our perspective) that he's had a huge impact on the Blues thus far. I'm with you in that I would hope, even with a promotion, that he would retain his scouting duties. My main point is that a promotion could be required to keep him in the organization, and now a spot is open. We'll see what happens.

Jarmo was a great scout and is now a great GM.

bradleygt89 wrote:Jarmo was a great scout and is now a great GM.

the guy that had us take erik johnson #1 overall?

T.C. wrote:

bradleygt89 wrote:Jarmo was a great scout and is now a great GM.

the guy that had us take erik johnson #1 overall?

That wasn't his fault. Nobody can overcome the jinx of the Blues. Only the Blues can come up short in a franchise changing opportunity like a 1st overall pick. You had Ovechkin and Crosby the 2 years prior and Kane and Stamkos the 2 years after. But in our year EJ was the consensus guy. What sucks is the previous season was a stinking strike year and Pittsburgh was granted that pick. If that season plays out, the Blues were definitely bad enough to maybe get that pick. That's being Blue.

T.C. wrote:

bradleygt89 wrote:Jarmo was a great scout and is now a great GM.

the guy that had us take erik johnson #1 overall?

OK, bad example.

Jarmo was not a great scout IMO, dude botched so many drafts with us 04 and 07 come to mind. His track record as a GM is meh too. BA has had far fewer top picks to work with and has still been able to get our farm system stocked. That's the sign of a great scouting director IMO. The guys perennially picking top ten don't impress nearly as much.

ratonmono wrote:Jarmo was not a great scout IMO, dude botched so many drafts with us 04 and 07 come to mind. His track record as a GM is meh too. BA has had far fewer top picks to work with and has still been able to get our farm system stocked. That's the sign of a great scouting director IMO. The guys perennially picking top ten don't impress nearly as much.

I don't think it's fair to compare Bill Armstrong's drafts to Jarmo's when Jarmo was here. The talent pool is way deeper now than it was back then when he was here. If you want to compare their work, compare his Columbus drafts parallel to ours. It's probably just as good or better.

Hey, maybe he won't make a good GM. Who knows till he gets the opportunity, right? I just know, from listening to interviews, & seeing his work thru behind-the-scenes videos, he looks & acts the part. He seems intelligent, knows how to delegate responsibilities, appears to lead w/out ordering, and if you listen to him talk, he has a plan. He tries to draft based off of an overall organizational model, as opposed to just picking players he likes (i.e. The Jarmo Method). He has a big-picture mindset.

Maybe that doesn't translate to GM duties, but in my view, he seems to be on that track.

I wasn't advocating that he replace Doug Armstrong.

I think our scouting staff deserves some props...it’s not just Bill that should getting all the accolades. Our scouts recommend the players and then they have to sell BA on said player.

BillP. wrote:

ratonmono wrote:Jarmo was not a great scout IMO, dude botched so many drafts with us 04 and 07 come to mind. His track record as a GM is meh too. BA has had far fewer top picks to work with and has still been able to get our farm system stocked. That's the sign of a great scouting director IMO. The guys perennially picking top ten don't impress nearly as much.

I don't think it's fair to compare Bill Armstrong's drafts to Jarmo's when Jarmo was here. The talent pool is way deeper now than it was back then when he was here. If you want to compare their work, compare his Columbus drafts parallel to ours. It's probably just as good or better.

Other than Dubois and Werenski I don't like many of Jarmo's picks with Columbus personally and Dubois was an overly obvious 3rd overall pick. Jenner wasn't a bad find for him though Jenner has stalled a bit IMO.

I mean just look at his 2013 draft. Once again he had three first rounders and picked Wennberg (decent), Rychel (total bust), and Dano (barely an NHLer leaning towards bust). That's even worse than his 07 draft where he flubbed it with three firsts and wound up with Eller Cole and Perron.

NHLTIM wrote:I think our scouting staff deserves some props...it’s not just Bill that should getting all the accolades. Our scouts recommend the players and then they have to sell BA on said player.

Very true. Our amateur scouting has been good all around. Hopefully our pro scouting catches up because the recent past (2-6 years or so) I don't think we've been correctly recognizing the right type of player to bring in through trades and UFA. This summer seems a step in the right direction.

ccfan22 wrote:

Dave's a mess wrote:

usmcaaron wrote: I absolutely agree. He's got future-GM written all over him. Im positive some team will offer him that position within the next couple of years, so the Blues would be wise to keep promoting him & keep his services as long as possible.

JR mentioned him as a possible replacement for Brodeur, so you seem to be on the right track there.

Just to be a bit of a contrarian, just because he's a great scout doesn't mean he'd do well as a GM. I have no reason to doubt him of course, but it's possible his current role is the one he's best suited for. If a promotion in title keeps him in the organization, I'm all for it, but I'm not of the mind that he's a lock to be a great GM just because he's got a good eye for amateur talent.

I have similar thoughts - and who knows if he wants to even get involved in the management side of the house along with his talent evaluation side. Is his title still Director of Amateur Scouting? If making him the highest paid head of scouting or giving him a trumped up title will suffice, he's definitely earned it.

I agree this is a no-brainer. If he is interested in mgt offer him Director of Amateur Scouting and Player Development or something along those lines so he can scout and manage the Rampage and use his skills to bring more talent into the pipeline. If he's not interested in mgt offer him a raise and get the contract extended. He's too good to lose.