No trades because of injuries and cap space AND every other team wanted to hose us for prospects. I'm not too upset with his decision to not get hosed.

The GM's true narrative (although unspoken to the media) is likely that these players need to perform in the playoffs or have their bags packed during the NHL draft. I expect some turnover there. I would argue no one is safe other than Allen, Tarasenko, and Schwartz, and maybe Steen.

I know that Armstrong has handed out a few bad contracts (namely Ott and Berglund), but for the most part he's done pretty well shaping up this year's roster (and it's not his fault Berglund simply refuses to use his talent, it's just his fault for not realizing that before the new deal was done). I think the hauls for both Perron and Oshie were not very good, but in both cases Army was trying to make a 'hockey trade' because the team wasn't in 'sell mode,' so it's really understandable that the haul is what it is, even though as a fan it sucks, especially when these players succeed elsewhere. Army's made some dumb trades to obtain pieces (Ryan Miller) but at least he learns from them (didn't re-sign him later). Injuries have been a bitch this year, and for the handful of games where everyone was healthy, the Blues looked almost unbeatable on the ice.

I think DA's biggest roster problem from a roster-shaping standpoint is with the defensemen. No one could have predicted that JayBo would finally get hurt and never be the same player as before his injury. No one could have predicted that Petro was going to be such an offensive disappointment. No one could have predicted that Edmundson and Parayko would be playing as well this soon, which raises several eyebrows as to why so much money is committed to guys like JayBo and Petro when Shattenkirk is clearly the most valuable defender to this team.

Pros for DA: Drafts have been MUCH better than the Jarmo days, makes compelling offers to keep core players, occasionally finds a way to sign the best player available (Stastny), isn't afraid to ship out a player who is not producing and causing distractions (Oshie), this year's roster has been his most resilient, and he has kept the team competitive in the NHL's toughest division for the last few years.

Cons for DA: Spending to the cap means cash-strapped at the deadline, is prone to both buy high and sell low on players with his 'hockey trade' mentality, occasionally lets personal feelings affect contracts (Ott), and his coach is stuck in the dark ages of goal-preventing.

My verdict: Fire Hitchcock but keep Army, with the understanding that all expiring contracts this year expire, try to get something for Backes at the draft, and Berglund doesn't get re-signed.

What's yours?

Nice post, but I have a few quibbles. Your point on Jaybo is accurate, but I don't think there's anywhere near consensus that Shatty is more valuable than Petro. I think a few on this board have rightfully pointed out how much he's struggled defensively when he was asked to fill Petro's role on the top pairing. Secondly, I don't think it's likely any GM would be able to get much of anything for Backes at the draft as he'll be a UFA a few days later. Overall though, I think you're on the right track.

I don't think Hitch will or should be back IF the team flames out early again. I also think Armstrong does stick around no matter what, largely because of his contract with I think 2 more years left on it. I can't see Stillman paying 2 GMs, particularly if we dont' have much in the way of playoff home game revenue.

Right now, my offseason plan would revolve around trying to pry one of the Centers away from Edmonton for a Shattenkirk centric package. Not sure what Backes wants or is worth, but I'd certainly be open to bringing him back depending on price. I'd also quietly start gauging league interest Lehtera. He's a solid player but he gets a raise next season, and we need ever cap dollar possible.

My opinion is similar.

Another con I would add is DA has failed to establish and maintain a team identity. He always seems to be tweaking the roster to copy the most recent Cup winner so we're always a step behind. Ideally we need him to have some vision and stick with a given philosophy.

Other than that the biggest problems lie within our coaching staff. The game seems to have passed by Hitch. I actually like the guy and have defended him up to this point, but he has not been able to come up with an effective offensive system 5 on 5, and that's squarely on him. The other big weakness is lack of gap closure, and this rests squarely on Brad Shaw. So at minimum those 2 coaches need to be replaced next year regardless, unless we actually win the Cup.

As far as players are concerned we mainly just need to move on from David Backes. His leadership role is ineffective because he really only has one gear in his play, and he will be way overpaid in free agency, so you just move on. Berglund should be moved, he is way too slow to be effective in a top 9 role but not physical enough for bottom 6. Gunny can be made an offer at a reasonable price, otherwise he can be replaced by Lindbohm. Shatty can be traded for a #1 center, if not then keep him. Brouwer should be extended at a reasonable price. Schwartz needs to be taken care of.

All of this leads to another pro for DA, and that is his cap management. He has done a pretty good job of looking at the big picture and long-term implications of cap mgt while keeping salary near the cap level. That can't be easy.

I guess if I was Stillman I would be offering DA an ultimatum - this is your team, you are responsible for their success, you are not friends with the coach, if you continue using the same formula as in the past you're gone.

Unless it's a case of obvious incompetence (Mike Kitchens), I tend to put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the players. Systems be damned. Systems do not stop players for putting out effort. Sadly, you can't shit can all the players that deserve it, so I think Hitch will have to go. Then we will see an energized start next season, with smiling faces on the players, until about midseason, (unless we have some roster changes) satisfied the pressure is off, they start dogging it again.
Question is, who is the replacement? Guess that picture might be clearer after the season when the coaching axe drops around the league.
Army could get the axe, but my guess is he will have another year. I would think it would be harder to find a solid GM replacement than another head coach, so that probably works in Army's favor. I've generally been satisfied with Army's moves. Yeah, Miller was a disaster, but AT THE TIME, people all around the league were hailing the acquisition as the key to leading the Blues to the Cup. I was certainly in favor of it. Fans are fickle. I was seated behind the goal in the playoffs, and Miller let in a soft one early, and fans were roasting him. The rest of the game, he was lights out, and suddenly the stands were filled with screaming, cheering, out of them mind, Miller fans.
Altho I'm a big Ott fan, he will almost certainly be a cap casualty. Bergy will also go. Gunnerson is probably gone. Backes performance in the playoffs will undoubtedly dictate whether the Blues try to resign, or let him walk. I really hope a deal with Brouwer can be worked out. He plays the game the right way.
We have 5 goalies between the Blues and Chicago. One of them will have to go. Could either Allen or Elliott be traded to bring in scoring help? Guessing that question may be determined by the playoff performances.

Army has held onto those picks and prospects for now but that doesn't mean he won't revisit the same trades over the summer and still end up trading those picks or prospects before the draft.

Unless this team gets to the conference final, I think Hitch is as good as gone. As for Army, I like Army and think he's a good GM. I think Stillman sees how well respected around the league he is and that probably buys Army some more time. The problem to me is that if Army keeps his job, they probably hire the new coach from within the organization and to me that's the biggest issue. It's time for a coaching staff with a fresh game plan here. I would prefer to see the entire coaching staff let go. Another first round loss and it might be time for the GM and quite a few players to go as well and we can just start rebuilding this thing.
Might not be a bad time to see if you can pry and up and coming GM like Jason Botterill from Pittsburgh. Highly unlikely the Pens would let him go but he's a guy I would look into.

Good points!

QFA...I think Petro is the best defensemen on this team when you're discussing defense only. I don't think Shatty's defense is better than Petro's, I think his offensive skills and team leadership skills are more valuable dollar-wise than what Petro provides defensively for this team, no matter how many minutes he plays or how well he shuts down the opponent's top line. Petro's contract was structured with the idea that he would be an excellent two-way player (comparable to Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty). He's not that player. He's a great defenseman with a hard shot, but his accuracy at hitting the net isn't the best and he has a large bias towards passing and not shooting. In today's NHL, little to no offensive value translates to little to no financial value. If you're going to be a top pair d-man, you should be able to move the puck and understand when to join the rush, when to shoot the puck, how to get the puck on net and how not to get caught too far down low. Petro struggles with these things much more than a top pair guy should.

This offense-trumps-defense reality is why smart people are still upset that Army didn't get more for Kris Russell (who again got a nice haul in his trade to the Stars, two players plus a conditional second-rounder). In St. Louis we're stuck in this mindset that defense and goaltending win Cups and any other thinking be damned (you don't win Cups by reacting well to other team's attacks, you win Cups by attacking the other team well). Also, I have noticed that several people are big on Petro as if he were a Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty type. He's not even close. Brent Seabrook is a more realistic comparison and even that isn't quite equal (and I think Chicago overpaid for Seabrook's extension). Petro has Keith/Doughty capability, it just hasn't been realized on the ice the way it has been realized with his contract.

With the emergence of Parayko and Edmundson, and in the near future the additions of Lindbohm and Schmaltz, I think this team would survive just fine without Petro. Obviously it would be an adjustment, but if he can't step up his offensive production, those dollars that you said we need should be spent elsewhere. We don't have as many young offensive players ready to step in and produce like we do on defense, and goal scoring just matters more.

On topic...
I think Army has to go because I don't think he fires Hitch. And I really think we need a new coach.

Slightly off topic...
Sorry, I hate to go off on this here, but in no way is Petro an "offensive dissappointment" and in no way is Shatty better than him. Did you watch how bad Shatty was while Petro was out?

Player 1: Kevin Shattenkirk: Career .59 points per game.

Player 2: Alex Pietrangelo: Career .55 points per game.

Player 3: Drew Doughty: Career .52 points per game.

Player 4: Duncan Keith: Career .55 points per game.

Its amazing how a .04 difference in points per game (3 points over 82 games) can make one player be this offensively gifted dynamic guy and make the other player an "offensive disappointment" among other things he's been called here. Especially when 49% of Player 1's points have come on the power play, compared to only 33% of Player 2's. Also amazing how its said "I wish Petro was a solid two way guy like Player's 3 and 4 but he's not as good offensively" while he has similar PPG measurements as them, playing for a team that we all know has struggled to score goals most of his career here, and certainly isn't boasting guys (besides 91) to pass the puck to like Kopitar, Carter, Kane, or Toews.

Player 2 scores at a higher pace (for his entire career, including this year) at even strength than Player 1, while playing against other team's best players, yet he is an "offensive disappointment."

I seriously don't know what so many people here have against the guy, sure he's not Erik Karlsson (neither is Shatty) but jeez lets get off this myth that he's not a good offensive player.

NHLTIM wrote:Unless this team gets to the conference final, I think Hitch is as good as gone. As for Army, I like Army and think he's a good GM. I think Stillman sees how well respected around the league he is and that probably buys Army some more time. The problem to me is that if Army keeps his job, they probably hire the new coach from within the organization and to me that's the biggest issue. It's time for a coaching staff with a fresh game plan here. I would prefer to see the entire coaching staff let go. Another first round loss and it might be time for the GM and quite a few players to go as well and we can just start rebuilding this thing.
Might not be a bad time to see if you can pry and up and coming GM like Jason Botterill from Pittsburgh. Highly unlikely the Pens would let him go but he's a guy I would look into.

Man, I can't imagine how poorly that would go over with the fanbase. Maybe if he hired Mueller but cleared out the rest of the staff, but still probably wouldn't be popular.

FuhrFan, for the record I'm with you, Petro isn't at the Doughty/Keith level but I still think he's well worth his contract though.

FuhrFan31 wrote:Good points!

QFA...I think Petro is the best defensemen on this team when you're discussing defense only. I don't think Shatty's defense is better than Petro's, I think his offensive skills and team leadership skills are more valuable dollar-wise than what Petro provides defensively for this team, no matter how many minutes he plays or how well he shuts down the opponent's top line. Petro's contract was structured with the idea that he would be an excellent two-way player (comparable to Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty). He's not that player. He's a great defenseman with a hard shot, but his accuracy at hitting the net isn't the best and he has a large bias towards passing and not shooting. In today's NHL, little to no offensive value translates to little to no financial value. If you're going to be a top pair d-man, you should be able to move the puck and understand when to join the rush, when to shoot the puck, how to get the puck on net and how not to get caught too far down low. Petro struggles with these things much more than a top pair guy should.

Agree with your assessment of Petro 100%.
Dealing Petro is the key to making a true offensive impact on this team.

I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

Word.

Back to the offseason, I'd like to see Upshall re-signed. I'm assuming he won't be asking for too much of a raise and he seems to be a nice versatile fit.

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

Realistically, and with all due respect Tim, Parayko has a better shot at being THAT guy, than either Shatty or Petro.

I feel like this also is worth mentioning in this thread...

St. Louis Blues ‏@StLouisBlues 6s6 seconds ago
A win tonight could move #stlblues into a tie for first place in the Central. GAMEDAY BLOG: http://bit.ly/1XYmkXn

I know, I know, BUT THE PLAYOFFS!! Having said that, its hard to run the GM out of town when his absurdly injury riddled squad is two points out of first place in the bar-none best division in hockey.

blueslifer wrote:

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

Realistically, and with all due respect Tim, Parayko has a better shot at being THAT guy, than either Shatty or Petro.

Parakyo has a shot to be the game breaker. Petro is great, but I don't see him putting this team on his back like Keith, Subban, Doughty and Weber have in the past. With the game on the line I want the puck on Parakyo or Tarasenko's stick, not Petro. Maybe Petro can still develop into that guy, but as for now he just isn't. IMO as always.

blueslifer wrote:

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

Realistically, and with all due respect Tim, Parayko has a better shot at being THAT guy, than either Shatty or Petro.

Down the road, he probably is that guy but will our team have the potential then that it does now? that's a big unknown. Right now, specifically for the upcoming playoffs, Petro has to be that guy in my opinion and more importantly he should be that guy. That's why he got the big contract in the first place, to be "the" guy.

Dave's a mess wrote:I feel like this also is worth mentioning in this thread...

St. Louis Blues ‏@StLouisBlues 6s6 seconds ago
A win tonight could move #stlblues into a tie for first place in the Central. GAMEDAY BLOG: http://bit.ly/1XYmkXn

I know, I know, BUT THE PLAYOFFS!! Having said that, its hard to run the GM out of town when his absurdly injury riddled squad is two points out of first place in the bar-none best division in hockey.

It is more fun to be crazy though

Everyone has a right to their opinion, but no amount of stats is ever going to change what I see with my own eyes. Shatty, Doughty and Keith, despite the closeness in stats, are without a doubt, clearly superior to Petro offensively. Ask yourselves, if it's the 7th game of the finals in the final minute, which one of those four dmen, do you want to have control of the puck? I think most hockey fans will have Petro at the bottom of the list.
My guess is a lot of Petros points come off secondary assists, while the other three make more immediate contributions with primary assists and goals scored.
jmo.

Doug Glatt wrote:

blueslifer wrote:

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

Realistically, and with all due respect Tim, Parayko has a better shot at being THAT guy, than either Shatty or Petro.

Parakyo has a shot to be the game breaker. Petro is great, but I don't see him putting this team on his back like Keith, Subban, Doughty and Weber have in the past. With the game on the line I want the puck on Parakyo or Tarasenko's stick, not Petro. Maybe Petro can still develop into that guy, but as for now he just isn't. IMO as always.

If Petro can't put the team on his back and carry it, and I honestly don't know that he can, it's funny that only a few of us see that as a real problem.

Dave's a mess wrote:
Back to the offseason, I'd like to see Upshall re-signed. I'm assuming he won't be asking for too much of a raise and he seems to be a nice versatile fit.

+500. Upshall was a great signing by Army. This guy has been a pros, pro, working his tail off at both ends of the ice, and while hasn't scored a lot, has made some really big offensive plays at times. Definitely want to see him back next year.

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

I don't disagree with this...but since when is points per game an advanced metric?

UMSLBlues12 wrote:

NHLTIM wrote:I really don't want to see this place turn into another Petro vs Shatty bitch session. It was never about Petro vs Shatty to me. You can quote all the advanced metrics that you want because I really don't give a shit about advanced metrics. What I want to see is something that I can see with my own freaking eyes and that would be that our #1 dman step up and make a difference for this team when it counts and that's at both ends of the ice not just in the defensive zone, or because he moves the puck up the ice well, or he is a stud because of his DZS....whatever. In order for us to advance in the playoffs, Petro, more than anybody else on this roster has got to be that guy. If we are going to advance to the conf finals or the final, the media should be mentioning Petro's name as a potential Conn Smythe winner around that same time. We don't need advanced stats to tell us or show us that, each and every one of you that watches hockey will know.

I don't disagree with this...but since when is points per game an advanced metric?

I wasn't actually referring to you and I should have pointed that out. This is in regards to months and months of discussion, mainly at the other board. I've seen so much stuff on advanced metrics since October that I'm just burned out on the mention of the word "metrics". Don't even get me started on "Defensive Zone Starts"...that's a whole other issue!

NHLTIM wrote:

Doug Glatt wrote:

blueslifer wrote:
Realistically, and with all due respect Tim, Parayko has a better shot at being THAT guy, than either Shatty or Petro.

Parakyo has a shot to be the game breaker. Petro is great, but I don't see him putting this team on his back like Keith, Subban, Doughty and Weber have in the past. With the game on the line I want the puck on Parakyo or Tarasenko's stick, not Petro. Maybe Petro can still develop into that guy, but as for now he just isn't. IMO as always.

If Petro can't put the team on his back and carry it, and I honestly don't know that he can, it's funny that only a few of us see that as a real problem.

I'll also add we don't know what Petro is being coached to do. I remember watching him before he made it to the NHL, and he was way more aggressive offensively. He carried the puck up so much more. I'd like him to carry the puck more, and sometimes a player just needs to say damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead.

I get frustrated with Petro because I see the talent. jmo

barnburner wrote:Everyone has a right to their opinion, but no amount of stats is ever going to change what I see with my own eyes. Shatty, Doughty and Keith, despite the closeness in stats, are without a doubt, clearly superior to Petro offensively. Ask yourselves, if it's the 7th game of the finals in the final minute, which one of those four dmen, do you want to have control of the puck? I think most hockey fans will have Petro at the bottom of the list.
My guess is a lot of Petros points come off secondary assists, while the other three make more immediate contributions with primary assists and goals scored.
jmo.

This all day and twice on Sunday.

barnburner wrote:Everyone has a right to their opinion, but no amount of stats is ever going to change what I see with my own eyes. Shatty, Doughty and Keith, despite the closeness in stats, are without a doubt, clearly superior to Petro offensively. Ask yourselves, if it's the 7th game of the finals in the final minute, which one of those four dmen, do you want to have control of the puck? I think most hockey fans will have Petro at the bottom of the list.
My guess is a lot of Petros points come off secondary assists, while the other three make more immediate contributions with primary assists and goals scored.
jmo.

Look, I don't want to keep belaboring this point, but this kind of information is readily available on nhl.com, and again your assumption would be wrong.

Primary assists
2011-2012: Petro 21 Shatty 17
2012-2013: Petro 10 Shatty 7
2013-2014: Petro 24 Shatty 12
2014-2015: Petro 16 Shatty 18 (Shatty only played 56 games here, so this season is very much impressive for him)
2015-2016: Petro 14 Shatty 14

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportT ... d=19&pos=D

I'm not going to go through and do the other guys because I really don't care to belabor this point anymore. I'm just going to leave it by saying all of our biased eyes can lie, but the hard numbers like this dont.